Census 2020 apportionments to be released by April 30; redistricting by Sept 30

[muon2]

I just concluded a Zoom call with the Census Bureau. The Bureau's representative said that the Bureau has set a hard date of April 30 for apportionment data. That's consistent with the original pandemic schedule and includes the possibility that it could be released before then, but the schedule made it clear that it wold not be before Mar 27 in any case. If I read between the lines, I would expect it sometime in the last week of Apr.

The Bureau officially has no start or end date for the period to release the redistricting data. The CB is assessing whether to release all states at once, which provides for the most accurate release since everything gets checked the same way. The official said it is highly unlikely that the redistricting data set would be ready before Jul 31. They expect an official timeline in the next few weeks.

The previous administration was going to release concurrent block-level CVAP numbers for Census 2020 based on administrative records. Biden's executive order has stopped that. The only CVAP available for redistricting will be the 2011-2019 5-year ACS data, tied to the 2010 geography. DOJ will have to determine at some much later point what CVAP data is needed to challenge plans made in this cycle.

[muon2]

Why did Biden stop the CVAP numbers? Was there fear that SCOTUS would allow that data to be used for apportionment purposes? I think that you had informed me the CVAP numbers out there are stale and very inaccurate in some places. Without good numbers, how can you get to that "perfect" Goldilocks point that makes you a good VRA warrior?

My sense is that the decision was largely political in that one side wanted a direct measure of citizenship and the other side was opposed. The fact that the data could be beneficial to either side depending on its application was not material. Note my comment that the CB is punting to DoJ to determine how they might want to prosecute cases with data that doesn't map onto the 2020 Census.

The Census Bureau already has to figure out the total population based on 67% self-response and the remaining 33% coming from often dubious efforts to count people, so how should they produce a citizen-only population if citizenship wasn’t even part of the questionnaire ?

Here's the breakdown I copied of the Non-Response Follow Up which applied to 60.8 M housing units with no self-response.
6.3 M came in with self-response during NRFU.
13.5 M were determined to be vacant
10.3 M were deleted as no longer housing units
Of the remaining housing units 56% were collected by the enumerator at the household, 24% by proxy such as a neighbor or building manager, and 20% by administrative records. That 20% by administrative record was less than planned based on Census 2010. In the end the number of records that had to resolved by imputation was less than 1% of all housing units.

Data on non-citizens is very limited and can only be produced by the annual ACS, which is a survey of a few hundred thousand households and no complete enumeration.

emphasis added

Not entirely true. The federal government has a wealth of records on individuals that point to their citizenship. These administrative records were part of the existing plan to make a more accurate determination than the ACS, but their use was cancelled.

[muon2]

I just received an announcement from the Census has set a timeline for release of redistricting data. The redistricting data will be released by Sept 30 and will be released to all states at the same time.

[muon2]

I just received an announcement from the Census has set a timeline for release of redistricting data. The redistricting data will be released by Sept 30 and will be released to all states at the same time.

Is that a guarantee that NJ and VA will use old maps for 2021?

Yep

NJ already had that covered with a referendum question passed at the last election that allowed the use of the state legislative maps until 2023 if redistricting data was not released by Feb 15.

VA approved a commission with a timeline that state legislative maps must be completed within 45 days after the data is released. That pretty much rules out Nov 2021.

[muon2]

I just received an announcement from the Census has set a timeline for release of redistricting data. The redistricting data will be released by Sept 30 and will be released to all states at the same time.

I read the announcements as giving a little bit of wiggle room. Legislators want to know when they will have data. If they said it "could" be as early as July you are still leaving them hanging.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/statement-redistricting-data-timeline.html

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2021/02/timeline-redistricting-data.html

There is now legislation pending in Texas that would permit the primary to be delayed if redistricting is not completed by September 1, 2021.

Literally that is true, but the tone I got from the conference call last month made me think they weren't seriously considering any dates in Aug. This timeline confirms that thought for me. My best guess is they are thinking mid-Sep at the earliest and this gives them padding if something causes delays.

[muon2]

My state we're supposed to be 11 months away from filing for 2022 primaries. It closes in about a year from now. This is all prep for primaries the first Tuesday in May. No one knows what geographically they're running for and won't until very late in the game.

It's even more extreme in IL. State law allows petitions to begin circulating on Aug 31 this year and file in late Nov for the Mar 2022 primary. The constitution requires the legislature to have a new legislative plan by Jun 30, or the backup commission to have one by Oct 5.

[muon2]

The Census Bureau released a statement to provide a mechanism to get data by mid-August. The catch is that it uses an old legacy format that is not in the modern tabular form. The CB will still release the tabular data by the end of Sep, but states could request the old form data, and give it to a third party to process into a modern GIS platform at their expense and risk of errors.