How to Get a High RON Score.
Bush carried Ohio by 2.1%. It should therefore be possible to create 9 CDs carried by Kerry by 0.1% and 9 CDs carried by Bush by 4.2%. This would give 18 balanced competitive districts, for the maximum possible score of 36. It matters not a bit that this would split many counties with districts stretching from NE Ohio to the western, central, and southern Ohio. The "independent commission" is legally obligated to use the plan with the highest RON Score.
However, there is another constraint. 2 CDs must be wholly within Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), and 1 CD must be wholly in both of Franklin (Columbus) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) Counties.
Other counties, including Montgomery (Dayton), Summit (Akron), Lucas (Toledo), and Stark (Canton), may be split into 2 fragments. Splitting of these large counties provides two Democrat areas that can be paired with Republican-leaning small town and rural areas.
The CDs in Franklin and Hamilton Counties can easily be balanced. Bush carried Hamilton by 5.4% and Kerry carried Franklin counties by 9.4%. Selecting areas that produce a CD with a margin within 5.0% is trivial.
Heavily Democratic Cuyahoga is more of a probem with its 33.7% Kerry majority. We are probably stuck with two Democrat seats here, just as under the current plan (in 2004, Kerry carried these seats by 63.4% and 16.7%).
Cuyahoga is entitles to 2.112 CDs. If we assume that the part of the county that is placed into CDs extending outside the county is as Democratic as the part of the 2 CDs within the city, then the rest of the state (16 CDs worth), went for Bush by 6.7%.
Creating 16 Republican districts with a 6.7% margin, and the two Cuyahoga Districts gives a RON score of -4. So there will have to be some more heavily Republican CDs, so that the rest are "competitive".
I can create one district that is 14.999% Republican, and another that is 22.2% Republican, and have 14 districts that are 4.999% Republican. The more heavily Republican district can be paired with the less heavily Democratic district in Cuyahoga County to form a pair of balanced uncompetitive districts. The two Republican districts could be created in western Ohio and the Cincinnati suburbs.
The RON Score is 12 points.
The RON score can be approved by creating a few Democratic "leaning" (0.001%) CDs. I can take 3 4.999% Republican districts and convert them to 2 0.001% Democrat districts and 1 14.999% GOP districts.
Each 0.001% Democratic CD balances a 0.499% Republican CD. After 1 conversion:
2 Dem and 2 GOP balanced competitive districts.
9 GOP competitive (not balanced) districts.
2 other GOP districts.
1 Dem and 1 GOP balanced uncompetitive districts.
1 Dem unbalanced competitive district.
RON Score: 15 points.
After 3 conversions:
5 Dem and 5 GOP balanced competitive districts.
1 Dem competitive (not balanced) districts.
4 other GOP districts.
1 Dem and 1 GOP balanced uncompetitive districts.
1 Dem unbalanced competitive district.
RON Score: 19 points.
If I convert 2 of the GOP 14.999% districts into a 4.999% district and a 24.999% district:
6 Dem and 6 GOP balanced competitive districts.
2 other GOP districts.
1 Dem and 1 GOP balanced uncompetitive districts.
1 GOP unbalanced competitive district.
1 Dem unbalanced competitive district.
RON Score: 20 points.
If Republicans can pick up 1/2 of the Democratic "leaners" (GOP congressional candidates ran slightly ahead of Bush in 2004), then I have a 13-5 GOP delegation.
But what if I can make the two Cuyahoga districts more balanced? A 34% Democratic district is not going to threaten the election of a black representative. And if the voters decide to replace Kucinich with a 2nd black representative, it is not a Voting Rights violation.
The two 34% Democratic districts can be paired with two 29% Republican districts. They already exist in the existing plan. The rest of the state can be divided into 7 0.001% Democrat leaners and 7 4.999% GOP seats. RON Score 28 points.
For this to work I need 7 concentrations of Democratic voters that will be split into 2 CDs that are combined with Republican areas. Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus, Toledo-Lorain, Akron, Canton, and Youngstown. It may be necessary for one Youngstown seats to swing away from the Ohio River (the other can be paired with GOP areas in NE Ohio). The Democratic areas of Stark County (Canton) can be paired with rural areas towards the southwest. while the Republican areas can be used to balance the Akron and Youngstown districts, and then a Ohio River seat can be created snaking from Steubenville to Cincinnati.
An interesting plan.
One restriction I see is that no county can have more than two partial districts. Have you looked to see if this impacts your plan?
