But Sacramento/Stockton/Merced definitely belong with the Bay Area, leaving the Sierra/Central Valley state impoverished and with bizzare borders.
I'm surprised at this. I was in the Fresno-Merced part of the Central Valley a few years ago and Merced seemed very much more part of the Fresno area than the Bay area. I've also assumed that though Tracy may be an exurban part of Bay Area, Stockton was more aligned with Modesto in the Valley. Has that changed so much this decade?
This area is increasingly becoming to San Francisco what Riverside/San Bernardino is to LA. Even Fresno is likely to be this way with the completion of high speed rail.
I'm not sure I buy that. Just because there are an increased number of commuters using HSR isn't going to put the Valley in the Bay Area. There are people who use Acela to commute from Philly to NYC, but that doesn't make Philly part of the NYC metro. I suspect if HSR provides the commuting ease that it might, Fresno to SF/SJose ends up a bit like Philly to NYC.
It would take a significant shift in economic dependence toward the activities of the Bay for the SJV to be considered part of it. The strong reliance on agriculture for the economics of the SJV isn't going away any time soon. I definitely can't see it in this 2020 cycle. Perhaps 20 years from now, but I want to think of the areas as they might be grouped today, not in 2040.