The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.
Which one of these are you denying. They are all pretty much the truth. Military service in a lot of places in PA (like many similar places in the South) is golden, even if the Republicans did call it out, it probably still helped him, on the whole. The Heinz people still carry a lot of weight in the Pittsburgh area. I would bet that that was probably at least 40,000 votes, at least right there, combine the hometown feel of the campaign in Western, PA, esspecially the Southwest, with the military record, and it gave him about the same boost the Dems would have got in Arkansas and Tennessee if they had run Clark. Finally... well, I have nothing to say other than that is what the study said. I provided a link.
Unlike what some Dems seem to think, that 19 point lead that the exit polls gave Kerry here did not hold. You guys seem to forget that, esspecially when you called PA two hours after the polls closed, even though, percentage wise, it was closer than Ohio. Not to mention that this state used to give huge wins to Dem candidates and only flirted with landslide Republicans. So, if the Republicans can't win here, the Dems have no shot in Ohio and Florida.
I thought Kerry won Pennsylvania because of the increasing Democratic strength in the suburbs. It seems to me that to win Pennsylvania, a candidate just needs to win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and some of the smaller cities like Scranton, Reading, and Allentown. I'm not from Pa., but I do know that these towns are pretty blue-collar. Shouldn't that help Democrats in Pennsylvania, or are the voters in these towns voting based on social issues?
Based on the the vote totals, PA generally tracked the national changes from 2000 to 2004. In 2000 Bush to Gore lost by 4.2% in PA or by 6.3% if you add Nader's vote to Gore. In 2004 Bush lost the state to Kerry by 2.5%. That's an improvement of either 1.7% or 3.8% with Nader. Nationally Bush improved 3.0% in the two party or 5.7% adding Nader to Gore. Bush gained in PA but by less than his national averages.
At the county level, Gore carried 18 PA counties in 2000. In 2004, Kerry only carried 13 counties. Bush flipped Mercer, Lawrence, Greene, Cambria, and Carbon to his side. Note that at the county level Bush gained the most in SW PA.
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