How many computer programmers does society actually need?

[muon2]

Let me frame the question by analogy. In particular let me ask this question in 1945: How many auto mechanics does society actually need?

In 1903 the Ford Motor Company was founded and in 1908 they released the mass produced Model-T. 40 years later, after WWII, the automobile exploded in use creating the suburban culture of the late 20th century. Auto mechanics was a standard high school class by the 1960's, and even if one wasn't going to be a professional, a large fraction of the population understood how to perform a number of basic auto mechanical tasks.

In 1975 Microsoft was founded and in 1981 they released MS-DOS for widespread use in the new IBM-PC. Almost 40 years later, computer use has exploded and defines culture in the early 21st century. Computer science courses are becoming common in high school as states work to define what that curriculum should mean. Extending the analogy then, I would expect that like auto mechanics a generation after WWII, in the 2030's and 40's we will see a large fraction of the population knowing how to perform basic coding tasks, even if they aren't at the level of a professional.

[muon2]

Foucaulf:  I can't speak for all institutions, but anecdotally, I know a lot of people who are pursuing minors in Computer Science, or are studying an unrelated field but want to pursue a coterminal Master's degree.  Since it's in Silicon Valley, this is unrepresentative of the university population at-large, but over 95% of students take at least one computer science course, a number that my CS professor has said is far greater than 10-15 years ago.  Classes in hot topics like machine learning and web development are some of the most popular courses on campus, but most people don't want to take the courses on compilers, operating systems, and automata theory required for the degree form the School of Engineering.  

 The general impression is that a lot of the "core" courses required for a CS degree are extremely time-consuming, and people feel they still have good job prospects in tech (if they want to pursue that route) through a cafeteria selection of courses in addition to side projects and internship experience.  As such, statistics that look only at college major would significantly understate the amount of concentration people put into CS - while the vast majority of non-CS majors have taken at least one CS class, virtually no non-chemical engineers have taken a Chem-E course, for instance.

To add to the anecdotal evidence, my son began a mechanical engineering degree in 2013. He decided to add a fifth year and a CS minor. His interest is robotics, and the undergraduate minor is sufficient for his field.