Supreme Court Strikes Down VA House Maps

[muon2]

The way I read the decision, this sets the stage for a two-pronged approach to minority districts in the next cycle. Prong 1 is Gingles with its three point test, particularly that there is a voting age majority of a single minority in a reasonably compact area that could form a district. That uses a very specific numeric target to establish the need for a VRA district. Prong 2 is the decision today, which when coupled with the VA CD case makes it clear that any use of a numerical standard for a district should be unique to that district and justified by factors like turnout and the extent of bloc voting among whites. Basically it says stay away from numerical standards, but test a proposed VRA district to see that the minority could elect their preferred candidate.

So a universal numerical test cannot be used to draw minority districts, even though such a test must be employed to determine if they are necessary.

[muon2]

Glorious news! I really hope this is the beginning of the end for at least the most egregious forms of gerrymandering.

Though I would note that they didn't strike down any districts, and they upheld the district with the most gerrymandered shape. They just ordered the district court to assess whether race was a predominant factor in 11 districts and if so, apply strict scrutiny as to how they were drawn.

[muon2]

The way I read the decision, this sets the stage for a two-pronged approach to minority districts in the next cycle. Prong 1 is Gingles with its three point test, particularly that there is a voting age majority of a single minority in a reasonably compact area that could form a district. That uses a very specific numeric target to establish the need for a VRA district. Prong 2 is the decision today, which when coupled with the VA CD case makes it clear that any use of a numerical standard for a district should be unique to that district and justified by factors like turnout and the extent of bloc voting among whites. Basically it says stay away from numerical standards, but test a proposed VRA district to see that the minority could elect their preferred candidate.

So a universal numerical test cannot be used to draw minority districts, even though such a test must be employed to determine if they are necessary.

So my Milwaukee districts are legal?

Not necessarily. IIRC you had a district packed at over 90% BVAP and two under 50%. You would at a minimum have to show that the low BVAP districts would be able to elect the preferred candidate of the black community. You would probably also have to show that splitting that the packed district doesn't deny blacks of an appropriate opportunity to elect looking at the totality of the plan. It might be done, but I think most mappers would simplify their task by redividing the black northside population.