Primaries with reallocated votes

[muon2]

I think this is the reason that states elect real humans as delegates to the national conventions. If the delegates are identified in advance of the primary vote and pledged to a candidate then the voter knows that in principle the delegate not only shares their first choice, but probably holds a set of views that would make their second choice more likely to agree with the voters who elected them. If a delegate is elected and their pledged candidate drops out, the delegate should be free to vote for any one at the convention. That vote would more likely go to another candidate acceptable to the voters who selected the delegate.

The key to making this work is having delegates identify themselves to the voters in advance of the primary along with the preferred candidate of the delegates. If the delegates are all selected at a post-primary convention the delegates are much less likely to represent voters for the winning (especially if withdrawn) candidate and are more likely to represent the convention attendees who have knowledge of the primaries that came after their primary.

[muon2]

The staggered process cuts both ways. Later primaries have far more knowledge about the candidates who could be the nominee, but the early primaries have far more influence on reducing the number of candidates. This is a fairly unique election with both parties nominations going deep into primary calendar without a clear winner. Many years neither party goes very far at all before a winner is known.

The first ballot delegate binding has the effect of making the second ballot the meaningful vote if no one comes in with an outright majority. One reason candidates suspend campaigns but don't withdraw is to preserve those bound delegates at the convention. I think the easiest fix would be to require all states have the same rules for binding delegates - first ballot reflects the state's primary, and all subsequent ballots are unbound. If that is coupled with directly elected pledged delegates voters should get a reasonable reflection of their secondary choices.

If there is a desire for something like superdelegates, let those be selected at the state party convention and be bound to reflect the statewide primary vote on the first ballot. They can act as insiders to influence subsequent ballots if no candidate has a majority on the first ballot at the national convention. The directly elected delegates would then reflect the congressional district preferences and would reflect the voters' preferences should there be subsequent ballots.