muon2
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« on: September 23, 2016, 08:02:21 AM » |
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The data is not polling, but it is still worth noting IMO.
Polls reflect a snapshot of the electorate as it reacts to the candidates and the events around them. Part of that reaction is to media mentions of the candidates - broadcast, cable, print, and online. Anyone tracking media mentions of candidates a year ago as a guide to the outcome would have put money on Trump to win the nomination. It was an accurate leading indicator of where polls would go, and eventually how the primary would turn out.
Correlations between online occurrences of a candidate and the election itself is a similar measure. Like media mentions a year ago these correlations can show what the electorate will be reacting to in advance of the polls. That makes it a potential leading indicator.
I claim no knowledge of how they count "signals" for the candidates and the election, so I can't say how much weight to put on their correlations. I would say that it would be silly to put no weight on these correlations. They are based on real data that influences the election.
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