Nugget from 538: 99.6% Chance the Map Will be Different than 2012

[muon2]

An identical map requires vote percentages within about 0.5% of the previous total, subgroup voting behavior (turnout and preference) within a percent or two, and sufficiently consistent state demographics. The combination is extremely unlikely, and has no precedent for happening. Demographics will shift from 2012 and the map will change. If nothing else I'll bet the vote percentages shift by more than 0.5%.