Which teams do you think reach the final four

[muon2]

Each year I track the number of upsets based on seeds as I watch the games. It's something I've done for 20 years or so. Usually there are 7 or 8 upsets in the first round, and the deviations usually comes from how many 9 seeds win over 8 seeds. Last year there were only 5 upsets in the first round, but this year there were 13! For the first time a 13th, 14th and 15th seed all won on the same day. In games involving seeds 5-12 the lower seed won 62.5% of the games. It's like the committee was basing the seeds far too much on narrow factors (late season, good wins) and missed the big picture for some of these teams.

[muon2]

After the crazy first round, the second round returns to normal. With one game left to finish there are only 3 seeded upsets out of 15 games, and only two teams with double digit seeds are in the Sweet 16. That's pretty much normal.

edit: Oregon's win makes it 3 upsets out of 16 for 19%.  The first round upset rate was 41%, and combined the upset rate is 33%. It looks like an example of regression to the mean.

[muon2]

The third round has replaced the upset craziness of the first round with a perfect round for the higher seeds. For three rounds the upset rate is now 16/56 = 29%.

[muon2]

Back to upsets in the fourth round with 3 of 4 number 1 seeds losing. The upset rate rises to 19/60 = 32%.