What would happen if Mississippi became 50% black?

[muon2]

He probably meant counties.

IIRC the only county which votes like this West Feliciana County*. Which is only barely majority black due to Angola Prison, which obviously doesn't vote.

*I am vitriolically opposed to Lousiana's terrible system of county naming.

It happens more frequently in off-year elections when turnout is lower. Sussex VA (58% black) voted 52-48 for McDonnell in 2009 as did Brunswick VA (57% black) by 50-49.  

[muon2]

It happens more frequently in off-year elections when turnout is lower. Sussex VA (58% black) voted 52-48 for McDonnell in 2009 as did Brunswick VA (57% black) by 50-49.  

It seems like Sussex, and less so Brunswick, are rural counties with sizable prisons that affect the data the same way that Angola does in Louisiana.

https://vadoc.virginia.gov/facilities/eastern/sussex1/
https://vadoc.virginia.gov/facilities/eastern/brunswick/

I didn't know about Brunswick but I remembered Sussex because there was some year when it was one of the fastest growing counties in Virginia because the prison had just opened.

(on edit: here's the story, Sussex County was the fastest growing county in the entire U.S. because of the prison population. http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=10430)

All the Census tracts in Sussex, and all but one in Brunswick are majority black. In both counties the prisons are given their own census tract, and that tract can be deducted from the county totals. With that adjustment both counties are still majority black.