FiveThirtyEight Update: GOP still slight favorite to win Senate

[muon2]

I love how when Nate Silver predicts every state right in the 2012 election and forecasts an almost inevitable Democratic majority for decades to come he's an Atlas folk hero, but now that he's using the same methodologies to arrive at the conclusion of a GOP Senate come 2015 he's now unreliable or along the lines of any other Sabato or Rothenburg type.

Nice move, Atlas.  Nice move.

And I can't wait to see the waterworks here when the GOP gets to 51 on election night.

That's not true Del Tachi. He was quite inaccurate for the 2012 senate elections.

By two seats...

He predicted Berg would win: 95% of the chances.

When everyone, even veteran political watchers said the same thing.  She won under the radar.  All of the factors were against her.  You can't hit him for not calling an upset.

I would go a step further. If he calls a race at 95% then he should (and I believe does) mean that there's a 1/20 chance the race will go the other way. If there are 20 races that are rated 95% then the expectation is that one race will be an upset. He had far more than 20 races in his 2012 forecast, and even though they weren't all at 95%, one should expect some upsets. If there were no upsets, then he could be accused of cooking his books.