We had a thread on this in December after the most recent Census estimates were released. Here are my projections:
The US Census Bureau released (link) its estimates for the populations of the states for July 1, 2004. This data can be used to project the apportionment for 2010.
For each state I have calculated an annual rate of growth based on the 4 1/4 years between the decennial cencus on April 1, 2000 and this new estimate. I assume growth rates based on an annual percentage increase which is uniform over the period. This is the same as a financial institution would use to calculate the growth rate of an investment.
The annual growth rate is then applied for 10 years with annual compounding to the decennial census counts. This results in a projected population for each state on April 1, 2010. With this projection, the average CD would have 712.6 K people.
The apportionment of representatives is calculated in the correct manner. Each state starts with 1 seat. The priority vaule used to assign each subsequent seat is taken as geometric mean of the average population per seat and the average population per seat if an additional seat were assigned. Seats are assigned until 435 seats are apportioned.
The last few seats assigned (and next few not assigned) are:
#431 TX 35
#432 PA 18
#433 MN 8
#434 AL 7
#435 MI 15
#436 CA 55
#437 NY 28
#438 IL 19
#439 FL 28
#440 LA 7
The result of this apportionment would be the following changes:
AZ +1
CA +1
FL +2
GA +1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
MA -1
MO -1
NV +1
NY -2
OH -2
PA -1
TX +3
UT +1
