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Author Topic: Scott's District Maps Series  (Read 7113 times)
muon2
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« on: February 10, 2014, 08:46:25 AM »

Basically, the number of apportioned seats will stay the same.  The idea here is to gerrymander two House maps which each max out the number of Republican/Democratic districts.  Per tradition, the default factor in determining who gets each seat will be based on the 2008 election results, unless there's justification for why a seat is not safe for one party even if a candidate won it overwhelmingly (i.e. UT-4).

Remember that 2008 was a pretty Democratic year, so the baseline for pure tossup should probably be 53% Obama rather than 50-50.

I'll probably throw in some maps. 

The best measure is the one-cycle PVI. Take the Dem percentage of the 2008 two-party presidential vote in the district and subtract 53.7%. Positive values favor the Dems and negative values favor the Pubs. Any result within 1.5% of even is a tossup, between 1.5% and 5.5% is lean and over 5.5% is solid.

To test how strong the gerrymander is, use my skew factor. Find the state PVI as if it were a district and multiply it times 4 and then times the number of districts. You can round that off to the nearest integer as the expected state skew for a non-partisan map. Now add the number of Dem districts minus the number of Pub districts to get the district skew. The difference between the district and expected numbers is the plan skew.
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muon2
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« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2014, 12:31:17 PM »

Anything less than 57% Obama in 2008 is hardly safe for the Dems. Look at the 2010 results in some of the D+a few districts. I'd count 53 as tossup and 54-57 as lean D on your MI CDs.
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muon2
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« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2014, 11:04:37 PM »

Democratic gerrymander for South Carolina:



SC-1 (Blue) - Safe R
60-40 McCain

SC-2 (Green) - Likely D
55-44 Obama

SC-3 (Purple) - Likely D
55-44 McCain

SC-4 (Red) - Toss-Up
52-47 Obama

SC-5 (Yellow) - Likely D
54-47 Obama

SC-6 (Teal) - Safe R
69-29 McCain
*This one would probably have some legal challenges, as the population deviates 63,845

SC-7 (Grey) - Safe R
67-32 McCain
*This one would also have problems (-58,837 deviation)

I've been working on a Democratic gerrymander that would have reasonable deviation levels, but it is far from finished.  I'll post it when it is done.

I'll be curious to see what you got. All those 54-55% CDs could be dicey in a 2010 election. I was playing around a bit with it and decided to play for a safe D-gerry that maintains a VRA CD at 52.8% BVAP. I still get two other Dem CDs at Obama 58-41 and 57-42.
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muon2
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2014, 01:15:22 PM »

Are kiddy-corner connectors actually legal? Is there an example of them in real life?
Yes. NC has used them.

The technical term is point contiguity. It's up to each state as to the validity of such connections. Most states don't allow point contiguity, but some do such as NC as Sol mentioned. Note the Guilford interlock between NC-6 and NC-13 in the 112th Congress.



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muon2
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« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2014, 06:24:57 PM »

Does anyone know the highest number of Republican-friendly seats you can get in Illinois?  The other day I tried to see if I could get a majority, but I couldn't get anywhere near that since even the rural/downstate areas weren't that anti-Obama in 2008.

(In fact, Obama wins Illinois without Cook County if I have my facts straight.)

Obama had a significant home state bounce in 2008, so Pub-friendly means something other than how many CDs Obama carried in IL. In 2010 the GOP won 11 of 19 seats on a bipartisan-drawn map. In the suburbs a CD Obama carried IL-6 and IL-8 by 13 points, IL-14 by 11, IL-13 by 9 and IL-10 by 23 points! All those went Pub 2 years later. Mappers in 2011 assumed that the Dems would typically need a suburban district that went 57%+ for Obama and 54%+ downstate without a strong incumbent.
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muon2
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« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2014, 04:18:14 PM »

Just wondering, is it possible to create a Republican district in Hawaii?

Not as far as president is concerned. There were very few precincts under 60%, and I see only 2 where McCain won.
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