muon2
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« on: September 02, 2012, 01:27:31 PM » |
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I think the bounce may be very hard to detect this year. The conventions are back-to-back with the holiday weekend in between like in 2008. This tends to put one bounce emerging just as the other convention gets going. Despite the huge audience for the DNC in 2008, Obama got a very modest bounce. With a smaller audience one would expect less bounce anyway.
When pundits look at large bounces in the past, they could develop without other interference during the summer. Before 2008 there was a larger gap between the conventions and both conventions ran before Labor Day. In 2004 the gap was a month, and challenger conventions in July were common. I suspect that we will learn that conventional wisdom about bounces will no longer apply in the new format established in 2008 and maintained this year.
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