The debate gives a 3% bump for Romney
Obama 67.2%
Romney 32.6%
Romney actually was doing better during the debate up to 36. I suspect some Romney buyers are waiting for the polls before they wade back in.
This is why Intrade doesn't have the value it used to for political analysis. In its early days, and more importantly during its forerunner the IEM, there was more evidence that the investors were using other signals and had the effect of leading the polls. Now the investors seem to be more poll-driven, so the market follows rather than leads the polls.
