US House Redistricting: Indiana

[muon2]

Here's my map of Indiana. It destroys Donnelly's district and puts him into a district with Stutzman. It also prevents a Baron Hill comeback by combining Bloomington with Indianapolis exurbs instead of the southern edge of the state. Pence and Young switch district numbers (Pence, who lives in Bartholomew County, is now in IN-09, and Young, who lives in Monroe County, is now in IN-06), and IN-03 is an open but very GOP seat. Ellsworth's district is mostly unchanged, so he maybe could mount a comeback, but otherwise I think this is what the Indiana GOP will do.

I'm assuming the white suburbs in Lake County (in IN-04) are mostly marginal or GOP-leaning; the map might need some modification if they are not.

I think your division of Lake is fine, but in LaPorte the Westville area tends to go Dem IIRC.

[muon2]

If I were the GOP in Indiana, I'd focus all my efforts on getting rid of Donnelly and making IN-8 and IN-9 less problematic during Dem waves.  The former can be done pretty easily, the latter is probably impossible, to a certain extent, given Indiana's characteristic weirdness, but it certainly wouldn't hurt a try.  Playing to try and get rid of Carson and Visclosky is probably a recipe for trouble.

I agree; there is a risk to a greedy map. A wave can then create a set of opposite party incumbents that can't be ousted in a later normal year despite the PVI. Given the sucess this year to get to 6-3 I think anything more than a 7-2 map is overreaching. The GOP is better served to lock in its gains for the decade especially in the south. Making one Dem district in play in the north is then a reasonable move on their part.

[muon2]

Certainly you could cover your tracks a little better by putting the South Indy precincts in CD6 instead of that green monster?

No, that screws up the map elsewhere, and there is a certain elegance in IN-05 taking in the inner suburbs of Indianapolis, and some of what used to be suburbs in Marion County.  It may be that IN-06 could be bounced out of its few precincts in east Marion County, just to complete the thought. Would that make you happier?

How much does it screw up the map/PVI to shift some counties south of Ft Wayne to CD5 in exchange for some of the south suburbs of Indy to CD 6?