Internal Show Dems in Trouble in IL-2

[muon2]

I think the only way an entrenched incumbent loses a PVI > 20 seat is if he or she is caught up in a huge scandal in an off-year or off-time election, depressing turnout from their own party.  Jesse Jackson Junior isn't there - yet.

You'd have to find cash in his freezer. Seriously. This district is not going to flip to Republicans because "we're not thrilled with the economy." We can see massive shifts in safe districts in unusual elections, sure, but I wouldn't bet money on a big swing in a predominantly African-American district to the Republicans for the first time in modern times being one of them. But maybe I'm just lying to myself and refusing to face reality, and African-Americans are going to vote heavily Republican in an Obama mid-term election.

If the poll is measuring anything, it's not unlike he cash in the freezer. My guess is this represents some fallout from the Blago trial. JJJ was identified at a meeting with Rod, and brother Robert wanted JJJ called as a witness to exonerate himself. Robert's off the hook now, so JJJ may never hit the stand.

[muon2]

Ah thanks.

I also recall reading that it voted around 45% for George HW Bush in 1988. It wasn't as Democratic as a district as everyone speaks of it back then. I mean Democratic enough to vote for any Democrat who wasn't a blatant criminal maybe, but that wasn't the case. Cao actually won a far bigger upset. That was more like if Tom DeLay stayed in the race in 2006 but was still defeated by Lampson.

Back in 1988 it contained Southern Cook County IIRC, and was far more suburban and therefore competitive than it is now.  Back then the 1st and 7th Districts covered most of the South side, and the former was over 80% black.

The 7th has been a black west side district and was in the 1980s. You are correct that the 1st and 2nd CDs in the 1980s were oriented so that CD 1 was primarily in the city on the south side and CD 2 spanned the city and the south Cook suburbs.