We Ask America - selected IL races (R)

[muon2]

Recently released numbers since the IL primary.

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IL 8
Democrat Melissa Bean 37.6%
Republican Joe Walsh 38.3%
Green Party Bill Sheurer 3.9%

IL 10
Democrat Dan Seals 40.1%
Republican Rober Dold 37.4%
Green Party Richard Mayers 2.4%

IL 11
Democrat Debbie Halvorson 30.22%
Republican Adam Kinzinger 42.04%

IL 14
Democrat Bill Foster 36.5%
Republican Randy Hultgren 37.9%
Green Party Daniel Kairis 4.5%

IL 17
Democrat Phil Hare 38.8%
Republican Bobby Schilling 31.7%
Green Party Roger Davis 3.9%

[muon2]

I interpret these numbers as meaning one Dem seat in Illinois out of those listed is in serious play. I suspect the bulk of the undecideds, if that way at this point in time, are going to tilt to the Dem incumbents by election day.

So these numbers "feel" right to you Muon2?

They have Obama with a 50-47 disapproval. I would guess that the right number is closer to 55-42 approval. If that's the case, the other numbers should be shifted accordingly. Also, this was taken some time ago, and I think that the health care vote mat have some effect on the next poll as well.

[muon2]

Yeah, those numbers look like junk.  Overly strong Green Party presence and they didn't push leaners enough to distinguish them from the actual undecideds 

Actually, the Green numbers seem reasonable. Since Whitney's 10% showing in the 2006 Gov's race, the Greens are seen by many as a none-of-the-above choice. Numbers like 2-4% this far from November are probably right. There is a real anti-incumbent mood, and spillover to the Greens is part of it.

[muon2]

The Springfield Journal-Register has an informative column on the the polling company We Ask America. It seems to imply that the Obama approvals in the poll were based on statewide numbers. Other polls I've seen from that period would give a 5-10 point advantage to Obama rather than the 3% disadvantage shown here.

[muon2]

A guy on Swing State Project did some digging and found out who's behind this pollster:

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So, they're in the tank for Republicans and want to obfuscate that fact. I think we can stick these polls in the trash.

I thought I made it pretty clear with the initial title that this was an R-related firm. That's why I added the extra link with the background on Durham so that it was clear.