The Dems have a MUCH better chance of winning VA than the GOP does of winning Minnesota.
I'm reluctant to believe that (on the Virginia end) because we keep seeing Virginia overpoll Democratic in federal races and then not come through in the end. Much like NJ. I think the situation in Virginia is changing rapidly because NoVa has shifted so much, so quickly, but the starting point was so far from the mid-point that it's hard to say Democrats can reach that 50%.
If you look at a 50/50 midpoint Virginia, in 04 it was 5.74% more GOP than the national average. based off the trend from 2000, a similar trend would put it at 3% more GOP than the national average in 08. If anything the trend in Virginia has picked up even more steem than it had previously in the last couple of years. A swing of 4-5% against the national average or even slightly more is a very distinct possibility, and a swing of at least least 3% compared to nationally is almost certain.
Considering where the state was compared to the national average in 04, its current trend if the Dems win nationally by 3% they are almost assured to win the state and have a very good chance of winning the state with a 1-2% win nationally.
MN on the other hand was slightly further from the national average than VA was (though not much) about 5.9%, but the state is showing no signs of trending GOP at this point, if anything its drifting back towards the Dems a bit more.
Anyway my main point was its going to take a much larger national win for the GOP in order to take Minnesota than it would for the Dems in order to take Virginia.
Smash, you can not expect every single presidential election to be based on uniform swings from 2004. It will not work every time. The Media has set these stupid maps in people's heads, and no one believes anything can change.
