Quebec 2022 Election

[MaxQue]

There was 3 more riding polls by Mainstreet last night:

Matane-Matapédia: PQ 63, CAQ 22, PCQ 7, QS 3
Pontiac: PLQ 41, CAQ 23, PCQ 17, PQ 8, QS 6
Marquette: PLQ 43, CAQ 29, PQ 9, PCQ 9, QS 5

[MaxQue]

You missed the polls from the previous day. CAQ is a head in Chaveau. I guess we know why MS keeps projecting the Tories at 0 seats despite being second in PV.

Also, Segma came out with a poll today showing Hull is essentially a 3 way race. Might be cool if QS can win it.

No one knows for sure how many seats the PCQ will win - if any. I'd say it's quite probable they will at least win Chauveau.

On that subject, Mainstreet did a Chauveau riding poll:
CAQ 47, PCQ 34, PQ 8, PLQ 5, QS 4

Also, a La Pinière one:
PLQ 41, CAQ 26, PCQ 12, PQ 11, QS 8

EDIT: Legault suspending his campaign and back in his office to deal with the hurricane, forecasted to hit Iles-de-la-Madeleine dead on.

[MaxQue]

QS had a bigger lead in the Témiscamingue part than the Rouyn-Noranda part (roughly 60 votes lead in Rouyn-Noranda).

[MaxQue]

And now we have EKOS:
CAQ 35, QS 21, PQ 15, PLQ 14, PCQ 12

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2022/09/quebec-election-2022-caq-in-cruise-control-for-second-mandate/

Leger will have its final poll published this weekend.

[MaxQue]

Constituency polls are unreliable or Mainstreet is sh*t?

[MaxQue]

Constituency polls are unreliable or Mainstreet is sh*t?

Yes.

But, I'm thinking Segma's numbers sound far more accurate. If they are to be believed, the PCQ is probably winning Chauveau too.

I doubt it. I think the PCQ will do better in both Beauce than in Chauveau.

[MaxQue]

Voted. The queue was like 100 persons long when I left (12 precincts in voting station).

[MaxQue]

8 Eastern, results start posting between 8:30 and 9.

We'll probably have a good idea for 1 riding at 8, Iles-de-la-Madeleine (they are in Atlantic time).

[MaxQue]

Don't know anything about Quebec politics, but I did a quick read of the party platforms and it seemed like every party except PCQ was offering heavy spending commitments in every area without raising taxes, which seems concerning at the provincial level. Also every opposition party has some crankish nonsense that they're likely only promising because they knew they weren't going to be forming a government anyway. Like for some reason PLQ want to put $450m into a public psychotherapy programme.

There is a fund to pay the debt which is very plump, that's where they get the money.
What's wrong with public mental healthcare?

[MaxQue]

Seems QS is going to pass the PQ in the popular vote very soon.

[MaxQue]

Seems QS is going to pass the PQ in the popular vote very soon.

Further evidence that it is the post-sovereigntist parties who are the future of politics here, compared to the declining parties of the sovereignty era. Net +1 and second place popular vote is certainly rosy when compared to PQ and PLQ's losses.

Verdun isn't sure yet, the QS lead dropped from 1500 to 500 in the last few minutes. PCQ is also about to take the lead in Beauce-Nord.

[MaxQue]

Seems QS is going to pass the PQ in the popular vote very soon.

Further evidence that it is the post-sovereigntist parties who are the future of politics here, compared to the declining parties of the sovereignty era. Net +1 and second place popular vote is certainly rosy when compared to PQ and PLQ's losses.

Verdun isn't sure yet, the QS lead dropped from 1500 to 500 in the last few minutes. PCQ is also about to take the lead in Beauce-Nord.

Or not for Beauce-Nord. The lead went down to 15 votes, but is now back to over 300.

[MaxQue]

One other first achieved tonight: the Pequistes outpolling the Liberals but electing fewer members.

Not sure yet. Only .5% between the two.

[MaxQue]

It turns out the the Trump-like party refusing to accept election results is the Liberals.
The Liberal MNA for Verdun, Isabelle Melançon, refuses to recognize her defeat.

[MaxQue]

66% turnout, the same as last time.

[MaxQue]

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

Their base is Sherbrooke, whose surplus population (and regional population) was spread out between the three neighboring seats in a unseemly matter. Outside that though, a bit of local knowledge is needed.

There is a (well-integrated) Anglophone community in the Eastern Townships, so the nationalism of the PQ/CAQ is less popular and it has some cultural similarities to rural New England (when you visit, you can hear French locals talking about shopping trips to Burlington, for exemple).

[MaxQue]

Looking at the map, having Sherbrooke's suburbs being split between 3 different ridings is probably the biggest reason.

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

Their base is Sherbrooke, whose surplus population (and regional population) was spread out between the three neighboring seats in a unseemly matter. Outside that though, a bit of local knowledge is needed.

There is a (well-integrated) Anglophone community in the Eastern Townships, so the nationalism of the PQ/CAQ is less popular and it has some cultural similarities to rural New England (when you visit, you can hear French locals talking about shopping trips to Burlington, for exemple).

Preferring a separatist party (QS) over a nationalist party (CAQ) for an Anglo seems kind of weird, but I suppose if you think about it more in terms of cultural nationalism, then, I get it. 

I don,t think there is much Anglo vote for QS there, but the fact Anglos are well-inetegrated makes nationalism less appealing to their Francophones friends/spouses/etc.

The PLQ conceded in Verdun.

[MaxQue]

Also, and I'm sure that fact will be denied by some, the federal government rejection rate of foreign student visas is way higher if the student is from a French-speaking country. Anti French and anti black African systemic racism at Citizenship and Immigration Canada?

[MaxQue]

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/electoral-maps/review-of-quebecs-electoral-map/

New electoral map proposal for Quebec.
Only 50 of the 125 seats are changed, two abolished ridings and two new ones.

Gaspésie/Bas-St-Laurent: Gaspé is split in two. Bonaventure takes most of it and is renamed Gaspé-Bonaventure, the rest goes in Matane-Matapédia, who shred its west to Rimouski.

Quebec City: Vanier-Les Rivières is too big, it loses a part to La Peltrie, who loses its rural west hinterland to Portneuf.

Central Quebec/Eastern Townships. It's a mess. St-François loses everything that's north of Sherbrooke, it goes to Richmond, who loses most of its rural areas and becomes a seat made of Richmond itself and various suburbs west and north of Sherbrooke. Both Brome-Missisquoi and Orford are losing some towns in their north because of being overpopulated (that's from Highway 10). Granby takes some of it, but most goes into Daniel-Johnson, a renamed Jonhson which totally leaves the Drummondville area, but adds towns from Brome-Missisquoi and Orford, the west of Richmond and the east hinterland of St-Hyacinthe. The Drummondville area leftover takes some amalgamated suburbs of Drummondville from Drummond-Bois-Francs to become a new riding, called Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie, a suffragette (terrible name, but short of Drummond West or Drummond Outer, I don't see a name). To compensate the loss, Drummond-Bois-Francs takes the rural east of Richmond (around the town of Val-des-Sources, formerly known as Asbestos).

Montréal: A seat is lost, it's technically Anjou-Louis-Riel, but the PQ leader district is torn apart too. Camille-Laurin is now made of the east of Camille-Laurin and the Anjou part of Anjou-Louis-Riel (which has not voted for the PQ since 1994). The west of Camille-Laurin goes into Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, who loses the parts in the west that are in other boroughs (which are actually the weakest parts of the seats for QS) to Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques. The Louis-Riel parts are added to the east of Rosemont, which is renamed Rosemont-Louis-Riel (which looks like a QS/CAQ/PQ/PLQ marginal). Viau, being the least populated riding on the island, takes the east of Laurier-Dorion and a small part of Gouin (which I assume is totally destroying the small Liberal majority left there). Finally,  Gouin and Laurier-Dorion are sh**tfed to a West/East split instead of North/South and Gouin taking the West of Rosemont (nicely spreading QS strongest neighbourhoods around).

Lanaudière: Repentigny loses its "rural" part and takes Charlemagne (hometown of Céline Dion) from  L'Assomption instead. L'Assomption takes the rural parts of Repentigny and one town from Berthier to compensate.

Laurentides: Underpopulated Les Plaines takes the north of Terrebonne and underpopulated Masson takes the east of Terrebonne, who compensates by taking Bois-des-Fillions from Blainville. Also, a new riding called Bellefeuille is created, from the west of the city and riding of St-Jérôme, towns from Prévost and Argenteuil and a part of Mirabel. Argenteuil compensate by taking the villages south from the highway from Labelle (probably a better fit there).

Laval: Chomedey is growing way too quickly due to new builds, they move an area under development to Laval-des-Rapides to give some leeway and Laval-des-Rapides give some to Mille-Îles, so it doesn't develop the same problem.

Montérégie: Richelieu takes the town of Contrecoeur (where Montreal wants to build its new harbour) from Verchères. St-Hyacinthe (who lost parts to Daniel-Johnson takes parts of overpopulated Borduas to compensate. Underpopulated Sanguinet takes a small town from Huntington. Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu now requires to be split, so it loses its more rural neighbourhoods in the west of town to Huntington. Vaudreuil is now overquota, so the town of Vaudreuil itself is splitted and added to Soulanges. That puts Soulanges overquota, so it loses its parts along the St. Lawrence to Beauharnois (which is now a cross-St. Lawrence riding based around Valleyfield; that new Soulanges probably worries the CAQ, losing the most CAQ part of Soulanges and adding Liberal areas). All of the Beauharnois riding on the South Shore, but the eponymous town is transfered to Huntington (which is now pretty mcuh everything rural south of the St. Lawrence and west of the Richelieu River.

Outaouais: Everything over quota, but there is still not the population for 6 ridings. Papineau loses some of its parts in the city of Gatineau to Chapleau and Gatineau (a riding covering the Gatineau valley, not the city) loses some part of the city of Gatineau to Hull (this needs to be reviewed, as that part is not contiguous by road with the rest of the riding, the Gatineau River having no bridges in that area.

Finally, in Saguenay, that wierd saliant of Chicoutimi into Dubuc (a leftover of former pre-2002 municipal limits) is being cut off.

Abitibi, Beauce, Côte-Nord, Northern Quebec and Mauricie are left unchanged.

[MaxQue]

The Quebec tradition of naming ridings after people continues...

They wanted to add a woman's name. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie is a long name and they say she has no specific link to the riding, just Quebec as a whole. I don't know if they could find a historic woman from the area (with a shorter name).

The commission has regrouped Estrie and Centre-du-Québec and treat it as one region. I would like to see the number of voters in Estrie to see if it's possible to add the riding in Estrie exclusively and respect the administrative region as much as possible.
I have already seen reaction of towns moved. Val-des-Sources (new name of Asbestos) doesn't want to be taken out of its Estrie region and be put in a Centre-du-Québec mainly riding.
Saint-Rosaire doesn't want to leave Arthabaska and be put in Nicolet-Bécancour.

Johnson is already a riding in three regions (Estrie/Centre-du-Québec/Montérégie), since 2021 (when the Haute-Yamaska (Granby) MRC was moved from Montérégie to Estrie.

Estrie electors (by adding each MRC): 392333 (7.74 ridings)
Centre-du-Québec: 198731 (3.92 ridings)