Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[MaxQue]

I can’t help but notice that Afghanistan is green. Does that mean that THE TALIBAN are condemning the Russian invasion? The TALIBAN??

Afghanistan, like Myanmar, new government is not recognised by UN, so it is the vote of the ambassador appointed by the previous government.

[MaxQue]

I find it extremely unlikely that China would provide any type of direct military assistance to Russia.

As it is what there is of the Chinese Tech Sector is already walking a really fine line with the Global Sanctions Regime against Russia, where simply trading with a banned Russian entity and basically completely demolish their inexpensive alternatives within the European, Asian-Pacific market, not to mention the US market for a range of consumer goods.

Sure China will likely try to fill the gap in the Russian market for consumer electronic items such as PCs, Printers, and Cell Phones, but anything involving "dual use technologies" will cause those companies more harm than good, considering the relatively small share of the Global Market which Russia consists of.

Additionally, many subcomponents used in Chinese Electronic Mfg plants actually are manufactured elsewhere, not to mention some of the tooling in the fabs, etc...

As it is, pretty sure the US will be talking be all of these related issues with China in Rome coming up here....

Forgive me if I don't do a wall of quotes from various recent articles related to this at the moment.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/13/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-UD2Q4MAMAJEAZO5TUEYSMNX4JA

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chip-makers-stockpiled-key-materials-ahead-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-11647167582?mod=livecoverage_web

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-11/card/u-s-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-to-meet-with-chinese-official-on-ukraine-Kt4HRrsR6vz0yH4t9Pmo

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/03/12/will-china-offer-russia-financial-help

You make good points about the real intention of this leak. I'm now thinking that this was intentionally leaked by the US government to swing their dicks and show off how powerful their sanctions are in deterring China from aiding Russia. They score some cheap reputation points this way about how they are still in charge of the world. Well, I think it's time for China to call their bluff and aid Russia if only to spit in the face of the sanctions. I'm not saying the sanctions would not hurt China, because as you detailed they would. But it's time for China to stand its ground and retaliate with its own sanctions, possibly up to an embargo. Everyone knows midterm elections are in 8 months. The only Russian export bought in meaningful quantities in the US is oil and gas price surge is already causing consternation in the US. You thought inflation and supply chain issues were bad now? Remember March 2020 when masks and hand sanitizer were sold out everywhere and surgical masks were going for $1 apiece? Does Biden really want to risk economic and possible societal meltdown just in time for Democrats to be demolished, so he can help Ukraine? Really?

What China would gain from doing that?

[MaxQue]

On the eve of 1 month of Ukrainian resistance, some fine aged takes from the forum's favorite tankie:

Ukraine is the one that first sued for peace. Macron said yesterday that Zelensky asked him to ask Putin to stop the fighting and Zelensky recorded a public message today saying the same. They will surely give up a lot if this results in an armistice and peace terms. Turns out the "Ukrainians are holding up well" idea was overly optimistic and a mistaken impression given by a few anecdotal Twitter reports.

And after that message from the Kremlin, back to the studio.

You can call it a message from the Kremlin, from Zhongnanhai, whatever. It's the clear reality and the truth at this point. Kiev is under siege, 1.5 days into the offensive, and Zelensky sued for peace publicly. Asking for an armistice with enemy troops on your land is not an action to take when winning, Finland still lost territory from the Winter War despite performing much better than expectations. I get that you're cheerleading for a side here but reality doesn't care about that.

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

Ukraine may well lose this war, but these takes will always be terrible. They read like Putin's own fantasies: capturing Kyiv in 2 days and winning the war in 1 week.

He's not a tankie, he's a fan of Winnie the Pooh.

[MaxQue]

I appreciate the shade:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1507502555865169927?s=20&t=bgodSq...

I dont really get the big deal about Hungary, AFAIK, they both implemented the EU sanctions & voted to condemn the war in the UN.

Only thing they are not doing is sending & facilitating the transfer of lethal equipment, but there might be something I am missing.

They are doing that because an election, there is speculation they will go back to their pro-Putin position as soon they are reelected.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1508878823185690637?s=20&t=8-J3GsseU2U...

Most upvoted comment, 936 times: "Another Khasavyurt agreement... Congratulations. Again windbags sold our guys"

There is some major hate in the comments, but also some pathetic coping:

"I hope that this is a multi-move on the part of Putin, otherwise the Russian Federation is waiting for the Maidan and the collapse of the country into parts. So betray the people, the military and people who hoped for liberation from Kyiv. After such a drain they do not live."

"Kyiv was not originally needed. The task was to "press" him. And no one is withdrawing troops from there. There is almost no supply there, and there is no point in destroying the historic city. Now the whole scenario will be from the eastern bank of the Dnieper, and to the south. But this, by the way, also means such a gesture: you see, we go forward, but you recognize the Crimea, the south and the southeast."

"No need to panic. there are still not so many forces near Kiev to storm, now we need to clean up the Donbass and all this direction. To be objective, everything was done correctly, only presented under the sauce that it was a gesture of goodwill. Not idiots are sitting in our General Staff, and Putin V.V. definitely not an idiot"

" don't panic. If in the Kiev direction we go on the defensive in the occupied sectors and finish off the enemy in the Kharkov, Southern and Donbas directions, then this is the right decision. The main forces of the enemy are concentrated there, and the sooner we destroy them, the sooner the war will end. So I think if that's the case, then management is doing the right thing."

[This last one make me laugh out loud.]

"didn’t think that I would ever say this, but maybe it would be better for Kadyrov to lead the military operation, maybe things would go faster with less of our losses, otherwise it becomes like a desire to keep a good face on a bad game"

And now... today quiz.

How many of these comments were written by paid agents of the FSB?

[MaxQue]

Putin is probably thinking real life is Command and Conquer at this point.