BC Election on October 24th

[MaxQue]

and on top of that BC Liberal leader is from central casting as exactly the kind of BC Liberal that people who vote Tory federally would hate (slick, condescending, downtown Vancouver "Laurentian elite" style professional with big L federal Liberal ties).

Wilkinson is basically the Ignatieff of BC. 

And he actually worked on Ignatieff leadership campaign.

[MaxQue]

The Liberals' zero sales tax pledge could be their version of Tim Hudak's "eliminate 100,000 jobs" pledge - a poorly executed, poorly thought out "big idea" that derails their campaign.

Sounds good on paper, as who doesn't like paying less taxes.  Problem is it blows an $8 billion hole in budget so for those on left, question is what will he cut.  Martyn Brown who was Gordon Campbell's former chief of staff pointed out even Campbell's big tax cuts in 2001 were only 1/3 the size of this and those were still controversial but at least you had some economists who agreed with them.  Also Campbell unlike Wilkinson had an excuse as that was the year Alberta brought in their flat tax so tax cuts mainly done to help stench more wealthy moving to Alberta, whereas now with Alberta in the tank economically that is not a risk and nor would it be applicable to sales tax anyway.

For those on the right, this might push some away as NDP is actually more fiscally conservative here as a BC Liberal government would result in larger debt than an NDP one sort of going against conventional wisdom and tradition.

I think if BC Liberals maybe eliminated PST only in a few key sectors hurting like restaurants and tourism, that might have been a winning formula as not as big a cost and targeted at sectors who need help most.

Nothing new there. The right do unfunded tax cuts and the left is forced to cut things/raise taxes to save the budget.

[MaxQue]

Fringe party candidates thus far per Wiki:

Conservative: 7
Libertarian: 6
Communist: 5
Christian Heritage: 2
Plus a smattering of one offs.

The Conservative resurgence decidedly did not pan out. Also I see the Greens only have ~45. Not a good sign.

The official fillings are even more barren (except for Libertarians).

NDP: 64/87
Liberal: 62/87
Green: 26/87
Libertarian: 11
Conservative: 3
Christian Heritage: 2
Vision: 1
Independent: 1

[MaxQue]

What are the final candidate scores?

Not closed, and BC only updates at the end of a day.

Right now:
NDP: 72/87 (+8)
Liberal: 69/87 (+7)
Green: 41/87 (+15)
Libertarian: 14 (+3)
Conservative: 4 (+1)
Christian Heritage: 2
Vision: 1
Rural BC: 1 (+1)
Communist: 1 (+1)
Independent: 5 (+4)

[MaxQue]

Why does Vision have a provincial branch when they couldn’t get anyone in Vancouver?

Vision Vancouver isn't BC Vision. It's a Surrey based party (through their only candidate is in Abbotsford) which seems to be a center-right immigrant party. Diversity, fiscal conservatism, good healthcare and education.

[MaxQue]

What are the final candidate scores?

Nominations don't close for another several hours. Bloody west coast time difference

Presumably they are known now?

Elections BC says that there is a delay to the high numbers of nominations turned in yesterday and that the list will be finalised as soon as possible today (but it will be late for you, as there is 8 hours between UK and BC).

So far,
NDP: 85/87 (+13)
Liberal: 82/87 (+13)
Green: 69/87 (+28)
Libertarian: 23 (+9)
Conservative: 17 (+13)
Christian Heritage: 4 (+2)
Communist: 4 (+3)
Vision: 3
Rural BC: 1
Wexit: 1 (+1)
Independent: 21 (+16)

[MaxQue]

Final count:

NDP: 87/87
Liberal: 87/87
Green: 74/87
Libertarian: 25
Conservative: 19
Christian Heritage: 5
Communist: 5
Vision: 3
Wexit: 2
Rural BC: 1
Independent: 24

[MaxQue]

I’d like to see a list of the 14 ridings with no Green on the ballot and also a list of 19 ridings with Conservatives on the ballot

No Green, by 2017 %
Richmond-Stevenson (12.9%)
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadow (12.4%)
Richmond South Centre (11.0%)
Surrey-Whalley (10.7%)
Boundary-Similkameen (10.2%)
North Coast (9.0%)
Nechaco Lakes (9.0%)
Surrey-Green Timbers (7.1%)
Surrey-Panorama (6.7%)
Stikine (no candidate since 2013)
Peace River North (no candidate since 2009)
Peace River South (no candidate since 2009)
Skeena (no candidate since 2009)

Conservative, by Liberal % lead in 2017
Peace River South (+52.0%)
Peace River North (+47.3%)
Langley East (25.4%)
Abbotsford West (+24.4%)
Abbotsford-Mission (+22.0%)
Vernon-Monashee (18.6%)
Kamloops-North Thompson (+17.8%)
Parksville-Qualicum (+17.2%)
Chilliwack (+16.0%)
Cariboo North (+15,4%; Con=6.0%)
Boundary-Similkameen (+10.1%)
Langley (+9.6%, Con=5.0%)
Surrey-Cloverdale (+9.4%)
Vancouver-False Creek (+2.6%)
Richmond-Queensborough (+0.7%, Con=3.5%)
Port Moody-Coquitlam (-7.5%)
North Island (-11.9%)
New Westminster (-26.1%)
Kootenay West (-35.3%)

[MaxQue]

With that poll, on uniform swing, we get NDP 61, Lib 25, Grn 1

[MaxQue]

Like geez, if you're going to pay Eric Grenier all that money to model elections, at least talk to him before producing that silly article

I'm not sure Grenier would help much, IIRC his poll tracker just used universal swing for 2019 seat projections.

Philippe Fournier of 338Canada, now that's a more reliable source. CBC should ask him if he'd be interested in a fat Crown Corp paycheque.

Already has a Macleans/L'Actualité deal and a government paycheck (physics teacher in a Montreal public college).