2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[MaxQue]

Impeachment is at 45% in Kendra Horn’s district according to the President’s own pollster.

Well, 45% is not a majority, nor even a plurality.

Clinton lost the seat 54-40, which was better than Obama.

Yeah and ?? Let's say that Trump wins OK-5 53/45 next year, Horn will still need to win a good chunck of Trump voters, voting to impeach Trump is not going to help.

This is assuming people vote only on impeachement and that people votes are coherent with each other (hint: it is not).

It is also possible someone votes for Trump and a Democratic House or vote for Trump despite believing he should have been impeached (and votes for Trump because they dislikes the D candidate even more) or that the House was right to do so or just like Kendra Horn personally and believes it's something she was forced to do by Pelosi/Democratic establishment.

Voters are not as nearly as rational than pundits likes to think.

[MaxQue]

Democrats lead in the 538 generic ballot is down to 6.2%, if Republicans can run say 3% ahead of their 2018 house vote number they will flip a moderate number of seats. The only way Republicans wouldn’t gain seats if they did a few points better then 2018 in the house vote is if they just gain in safe Republican and Democratic seats and not in the 50/50 seats which is unlikely.

That's discounting double incumbency (loss of the Republican incumbent vote + gain of a incumbent vote for Democrats),

[MaxQue]

The senate rating will be South Carolina moving to tossup.

Congratulations!