Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[MaxQue]

It's a TIE in Glenmore with all boxes counted. 7015 for both PC and NDP.

[MaxQue]

Peace River is a 160 votes lead for NDP, one box left.

[MaxQue]

It's a TIE in Glenmore with all boxes counted. 7015 for both PC and NDP.

Recount?

Recount policies in Alberta are:

There is only an automatic recount if it's tied. In other cases, the candidate or its agent has 8 days to ask a recount.

If there is still a tie after the recount, there is a by-election.

[MaxQue]

What was the turnout?

57%. Best since 1993 (60%).

[MaxQue]

Can some Canadian etc. please explain to me in 3-5 short sentences what happened and why ?

I always thought Alberta is the Canadian Utah or Wyoming and now this NDP-surge. It's as if a Green Party governor won the election in UT or WY.

Also, this was my prediction:

My prediction (out of the hat):

38% NDP (46 seats)
26% PC (18 seats)
24% WR (20 seats)
 6% LIB (2 seats)
 4% AP (1 seat)
 2% Others

Turnout: 58%

How did I do and where can someone find results ?

Thx.

NDP 40.6% (53 seats)
Wildrose 24.2% (20 seats)
PC 27.8% (10 seats, but really 9 since Prentice already resigned)
Liberals 4.2% (1 seat)
Alberta Party 2.3% (1 seat)
?: 2 seats (it's an exact tie between PC and NDP in Calgary-Glenmore. There will be a recount by a judge, if still tied, the election will be called unconclusive and a by-election called for the seat. Also, Chestermere-Rocky View has a few boxes of votes to still count and it's too close between PC and WR).

There is already one by-election to call in Calgary-Foothills, to replace resigning Premier, PC leader and MLA Jim Prentice.

[MaxQue]

What was turnout ?

And why did the NPD gain that much in such a right-wing stronghold ?

58%

Because my brain can't get off the topic of recounts right now, I've been wondering if a recount will also end up happening in Little Bow?  Ian Donovan only lost by 12 votes...

No automatic recount in Alberta unless it's tied, but Ian Donovan or his agent can ask one to a judge. He has 8 days after the official vote addition to do so, recount must begin in the 10 days after the demand (if not rejected).

[MaxQue]

Chestermere-Rocky View will most likely be WR. They lead by 222 votes with one box left.

[MaxQue]

WR won in Chestermere-Rocky View.

[MaxQue]

This is not a good day for conservatives in Alberta... On another note, how many Tories and Wildrose voters will start calling for IRV in Alberta?

I don't know too much about Albertan politics, aside from a brief history of the different periods of government. So, I was wondering, given Alberta's long history of conservatism:

• Did the incumbent government do something extremely bad to lose?
• Was it vote-splitting between the Tories and Wildrose?
• Or did people just want a change?

As I understand it, the recent dip in the oil market a few months back did major harm to Alberta's economy. The Tories attempted to solve this issue with their budget, which had something in it for EVERYONE to hate, including more than 50 different tax hikes. This plus the already surging NDP and Wildrose parties have created an election where nearly everyone has a reason to vote against the PC's and a genuine alternative option to vote for.

Also, the 50 tax hikes were all on people. Corporations had no change in taxes.

[MaxQue]

A bittersweet election for Wildrose. If you had told them that they would salvage 20 seats in rural Alberta a couple months ago, they would have been ecstatic, but now it's a disappointing defeat

Wildrose is quite happy, really. Result seems to be quite in line with expectations. Jean wasn't really campaigning to be Premier in the two last weeks, he decided to be quiet and get a solid foothold in rural Alberta instead.

[MaxQue]

Out of curiosity, who are some of the more interesting NDP/Wildrose candidates who won? I've heard that in terms of gender and ethnicity, the candidates were pretty diverse this time around, but I don't know much about them (besides Notley).

Some of may be just rumors, but Twitter and NP have given me this list of oddball NDPers:

A Chavismo supporter who defeated a PC incumbent by 40 points.
A CS university student.
A Poli Sci student.
Someone with Duck Dynasty-style facial hair. https://twitter.com/FailedProtostar/status/595780884076371969
An 18 year old
A barista
A yoga instructor
This young woman celebrating 420 on Facebook https://twitter.com/GlenStromquist/status/595969029556215809

The was a NPD candidate who was elected as MP from a riding in deepest Quebec, who said after her election that she had heard that the riding was a lovely place, and that she hoped to visit soon.  IIRC her French-language abilities did not go much past, "bon jour", but she had a French name.

Ruth Ellen Brosseau. She is now prefectly bilingual, various reports are saying she is quite liked in her riding, she is considered effective in House (she is deputy Agriculture critic) and she was elected by NPD MPs, vice-president of the NDP caucus. It's often shown as a success story.

Adma: Not surprising, Wildrose seems to have focused on establishing a solid rural foothold instead of trying to win swingy Calgary.

[MaxQue]

Out of curiosity, who are some of the more interesting NDP/Wildrose candidates who won? I've heard that in terms of gender and ethnicity, the candidates were pretty diverse this time around, but I don't know much about them (besides Notley).

Some of may be just rumors, but Twitter and NP have given me this list of oddball NDPers:

A Chavismo supporter who defeated a PC incumbent by 40 points.
A CS university student.
A Poli Sci student.
Someone with Duck Dynasty-style facial hair. https://twitter.com/FailedProtostar/status/595780884076371969
An 18 year old
A barista
A yoga instructor
This young woman celebrating 420 on Facebook https://twitter.com/GlenStromquist/status/595969029556215809

The was a NPD candidate who was elected as MP from a riding in deepest Quebec, who said after her election that she had heard that the riding was a lovely place, and that she hoped to visit soon.  IIRC her French-language abilities did not go much past, "bon jour", but she had a French name.

Ruth Ellen Brosseau. She is now prefectly bilingual, various reports are saying she is quite liked in her riding, she is considered effective in House (she is deputy Agriculture critic) and she was elected by NPD MPs, vice-president of the NDP caucus. It's often shown as a success story.

Really? But she visited Las Vegas and can't speak French. I heard that her constituents lynched her in the streets and elected a statue of Harper as their new MP.

Yeah, NDP gave up back a crash course in French (his family was formely francophone, she had courses when young, but she forgot) , they send Mulcair to get care of the constituency problems for a few weeks until she mastered French back and they said than the accusations she was not speaking French were exagerated by a pro-Bloc radio interviewer.

[MaxQue]

Brian Topp has been appointed Rachel Notley's Chief of Staff. I was going to put him on my list of potential Chiefs of Staff but I thought he was from Ontario not Saskatchewan as I was familiar with him as the former top aide to Jack Layton and was unaware that he had previously been a senior aide to Roy Romanow.

He worked for Romanow, but is based in Toronto and was born and grew in Longueuil, a Montreal suburb.

[MaxQue]

How the mighty have fallen, etc.

You posted twice the same link, Rogue.