Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[MaxQue]

PCQ is totally irrelevent.

[MaxQue]

The trend is clear. PQ raises, CAQ slides, Liberals are very stable (which is normal, they only have their core vote, at that point).

[MaxQue]

A Forum Research poll from last week.

PQ: 39%
PLQ: 30%
CAQ: 19%

Probably an outlier.

[MaxQue]

A new Léger Marketing-La Presse poll

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_revise_10mars.pdf

PQ: 33%
PLQ: 28%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 6%
GRN: 4%
ON: 2%

PQ is near majority with those numbers.

[MaxQue]

I saw two burkas women yesterday and another one lived on the same floor than me last year.

So, I doubt than they are less than 200.

[MaxQue]

CROP-La Presse, March Poll

PQ: 34%
Libs: 30%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 5%
Grn: 5%
ON: 1%

French vote is 41 PQ, 29 CAQ, 19 Libs.

Probably very near of a PQ majority.

[MaxQue]

4 point spread isn't enough for a majority.

Budget.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/21/01-4507639-en-route-vers-des-elections.php

Poll.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/20/01-4507629-marois-poursuit-sur-sa-lancee.php

Must I remember than PQ got a majority in 1998 while losing popular vote?

[MaxQue]

A "new" (a week old) Léger Marketing-La Presse poll

http://www.legermarketing.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Sondage_politique_provinciale_Le_Devoir_7_avril_2012.pdf

PQ: 33% (-)
PLQ: 27% (-1)
CAQ: 22% (-2)
QS: 7% (+1)
GRN: 5% (+1)
ON: 1% (-1)

I suppose than all news about corruption hurted more Liberals this week.

[MaxQue]

By the sounds of it, Charest is hoping for the lower turnout. I wouldn't be surprised to see the CAQ pick up a few seats, just due to the motivation factor.

How are the student strikes playing with mainstream Quebecers by the way? I'd guess not well, but I've never been able to understand Quebec poltiics

Roughly, one half agrees and one half disagrees. Neither side has a real advantage in the opinion.

[MaxQue]

QS: A more left-wing, hardcore sovereigntist breakaway from the PQ.

For the record, unlike PQ, QS doesn't see the independance as a goal, but as a tool to implant its program.

[MaxQue]

They stuck with him in '93, they'll stick with him now.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1226136--hebert-sherbrooke-will-be-ground-zero-in-charest-s-battle-to-remain-quebec-premier

I agree with Hebert. He's in trouble there.

I concur. Charest almost lost in 2007 and Sherbrooke is the city with the biggest percentage of students in Quebec. Some local businessman are angry at him, because students are a significant part of their clientele and the hike would reduce their other expenses, so they would buy less.

[MaxQue]

many students start classes August 27

I don't know for Sherbrooke, but there will be 3 starting dates this year.
August 15 (for those those strike didn't end), September 4 and October 1st (for universities which want college people who will have graduated in Septemebr), depending of the striking.

In my case, I begin on October 1st, so, I'll vote in the swing Abitibi-Est and not the Liberal stronghold of Outremont, so, I won't complain.

For TexasD, no, his federal preference isn't known. Probably prefer the Tory party, but he has an awful relation with Harper.

EDIT: For Sherbrooke, there is lot of dates, mainly August 27 and September 10 and 17. September 4 and October 1 exist, but they are rare. And people which didn't finished the Winter semester will start even earlier.

[MaxQue]

Having an early September election is a good way to hinder the student vote. Coincidence?

Perhaps, but that can be explained another way.

Summer: Bad idea, people are annoyed by it.

September 10: Would put early voting during Labor Day weekend (early vote favor Liberals).

September 17: Rosh Hashanah, which is a Jew feast (they vote Liberal too).

After: The corruption inquiry commission is meeting again, which may hurt Liberals.

[MaxQue]

QS: A more left-wing, hardcore sovereigntist breakaway from the PQ.

For the record, unlike PQ, QS doesn't see the independance as a goal, but as a tool to implant its program.

I think thats a HUGE distinction to make, and one thats especially lost on english/rest-of-canadian media, is it in PQ as well?

Any rate, isn't stopping QS from getting some strong candidates in place outside of Montreal...
http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/07/19/006-elections-solidaire-couture.shtml


Outside of Mercier, Gouin and possibly Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jaques; i don't see QS winning anywhere else, but this is quebec and they will now have a place in the leaders debate so anything can happen... i'm hoping they surprise here in Ungava and win... a boy can dream

No, the PQ wants independance for independance. And hopefully QS stay low. If they are high, it's a sure thing than Liberals are reelected.

[MaxQue]

Well, I think than CAQ will hurt Liberals more than PQ.

In other news, PQ announced its candidate in my riding. Unknown, but a strong resume.

[MaxQue]

I'm quite astonished by the Liberal candidate in Rouyn-Noranda--Témiscamingue, a seat than they currently hold.
A 24 year old girl, which isn't living in Abitibi anymore and whose main achievement is apparently participating in a UN simulation.
I don't really think it is a good candidate to defend a swing seat.

[MaxQue]

QS winning more than two seats barring some phenomenal surge which seems quite unlikely, would be a massive upset and anybody who seriously thinks they could win more than 2 at this point is certainly delusional or a hack who should smell the coffee. I seriously doubt the QS vote will end up being 9-10% on election day anyway.

well we've seen massive "upsets" in Quebec haven't we as of late; i jsut don't think you can discount anything.

QS vote will suffer from the same problem than NDP in 2008 in Quebec. They had good poll numbers through the campaign, but, the vote approching, their vote went down, because of strategical voting.

[MaxQue]

PQ recruitment is quite impressive in many areas of Quebec.
The CAQ recruitment is worse than expected.
Liberal recruitment is very bad, but, that isn't surprising.

In my Abitibi region, the party with the best recruitment is CAQ, through.

[MaxQue]

CAQ star candidate?

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201207/25/01-4559401-le-dr-gaetan-barrette-necarte-pas-un-avenir-politique.php

That guy has no creditibility. People I know call him "the obese doctor on TV".
Especially than he is complaining than 200.000$ isn't enough for a specialist doctor or the like....

[MaxQue]

At least that bubble was popped. There are few people in provincial politics I dislike more than Legault, mostly because of that godawful "reform" (which I narrowly escaped) he and Marois pushed through in the last PQ government.

From younger people I know, the reform isn't bad. It isn't good neither. To assess the full effect, we must wait than they reach the work market.

Already, we saw than there is no difference in college marks.

[MaxQue]

Oh, CAQ shows great coherancy again.

One local candidate here voted for a motion at Témiscamingue MRC council for a scolarity fee freeze and a bonification of the financial aid system (which passed, by the way).

CAQ isn't coherent on the national question, neither it is on the policies.

[MaxQue]

Radio said than a CAQ internal, by CROP is saying Libs 31, PQ 30, CAQ 24.

[MaxQue]

Apparently the Grits are at 22 among Francophones. Which sounds like a PQ majority to me.

For me too. It's too low to come in the middle because of the CAQ-PQ divide in suburbs and too much of their 31% in concentrated in the same ridings (West Island, anglos areas elsewhere).

[MaxQue]

A PQ internal, done by Repère and reported by QMI.
PQ 33, Lib 30, CAQ 21
Francos: PQ 38, Lib 25, CAQ 23.

Charest insatisfaction is 71%, in line with other polls (was 69% in Léger of June) and Marois is tied with Charest as best PM, which is in line too.

There is a weird result, through, the independance being at 49%.

http://fr.canoe.ca/infos/quebeccanada/archives/2012/07/20120726-161735.html

[MaxQue]

Radio said than a CROP-La Presse is saying Libs 31, PQ 30, CAQ 24.

Radio said it was a CAQ internal, published in the Presse, not a CROP-La Presse poll.