EP elections 2014

[Ethelberth]

These are the present projections on next European parliament election.


EPP Present 271 , Future 219

The obvious areas of loosing seats are Italy, Romania, Spain, Hungary and Poland.


PSE Present 190, Future 200.

The biggest gains are in UK. PASOK and PSOE will loose seats, otherwise no big changes.

ALDE Present 85, Future 72

The biggest loose will happen in Italy, where there will be no ALDE deputies.

Greens Present 51, Future 59

The biggest gains are in Belgium (if N-VA remains in that particular group). Final results depends on  French greens, that are difficult to predict on EP level.

Conservatives, Present 51, Future 54

This groups may have new members (eg. Freie Wähler in Germany, Stornach in Austria, OLANE i Slovakia. On the other hand, they will loose seats in Hungary and Belgium and Czech republic).

EFD, Present 34, Future 28
The UKIP, the True Finns and DF will keep their seats. The Lega will loose. Some parties will dissapear (e.g. SNS). The big question is, whether the new electoral law in Germany without threshold, allow some groups join the group.


The left, Present 34, Future 58

This is one of the winner. Syriza, and IU will winn largely. Italy may be represented in this group. In Netherland, France, Finland and Denmark they will propably gain seats.


The extreme Right Present 17, the next parliament 28.

The new countries in this group are Sweden, Greece and Germany. They may loose seats in Romania. In general there are allway possible, that they are inable to form the group and some of the parties will join EFD groups.


The other Present 5 future 5

DUP and PVV will remain unallied.


The anarchistic and anti-establishment semi left wing parties. Present 5 in Future 36.

If Grillo, UPYD, various Pirate parties and the new Slovenian party will ally in the parliament, they could easilly form a group. Grillo movement it self gets 20 seats that is close to the potential to form own group in parliament.
 
   
                                 
   P   S   L   K   V   G   R   E   O   X   
AT   4   5   0   2   0   3   0   0   4   0   18
BE   4   5   3   0   1   7   0   0   1   0   21
BU   7   6   3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   17
CY   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   6
CZ   5   10   0   3   3   0   0   0   0   0   21
DE   35   25   4   4   7   17   0   2   2   0   96
DK   1   2   5   0   2   1   0   2   0   0   13
EE   1   2   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   6
ES   19   17   3   0   8   2   5   0   0   0   54
FI   3   2   3   0   1   2   0   2   0   0   13
FR   24   17   4   1   8   10   1   1   8   0   74
HE   6   1   0   0   9   1   0   1   3   0   21
HR   4   5   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   11
HU   10   5   2   0   0   1   0   0   3   0   21
IR   3   2   3   0   3   0   0   0   0   0   11
IT   28   19   0   0   3   0   20   3   0   0   73
LT   2   2   3   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   11
LU   3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   6
LV   4   2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   8
MT   2   4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   6
NL   2   5   9   1   4   1   0   0   0   4   26
PL   20   8   3   17   0   0   0   3   0   0   51
PT   8   8   0   0   5   0   0   0   0   0   21
RO   9   9   8   0   0   0   4   0   2   0   32
SE   6   6   3   0   1   2   0   0   2   0   20
SI   3   2   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   8
SK   3   7   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   13
UK   0   25   7   21   1   5   0   12   1   1   73
   218   204   72   53   58   52   33   28   28   5   751