Official Potomac/Beltway Primary Discussion Thread (DEM)

[Kalimantan]

http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/ reporting Mike Henry has quit Clinton campaign

[Kalimantan]

With Richmond and Arlington all-in, it will probably get closer - but not by much. Currently +28 Obama

[Kalimantan]

Again from http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/, very useful tonight...

Obama must get 62.5% for the final Delegates in the 1st and 2nd CD's.  Right now he is at 64.8% and 62.9% with a number of precincts still outstanding.

Obama needs 75% to get the final 3rd CD Delegate, he has 79.8% so far.

Obama needs 70% to get the final 4th CD Delegate- but returns there are mushy showing Hillary getting 0 votes in Chesterfield County- so we can't call that one.

Obama needs 64.3% to get the final 8th CD Delegate- he has 63.3% so far.

Obama needs 58.3% to get the final 11th CD Delegate- he has 58.8% right now.

[Kalimantan]

Ok, what about delegates tonight?

Obama's own projections had him winning more   delegates tonight by the following:

Va  -  43 -40
Md  - 37 -33
DC  -  9  - 6

He exceeded that.  Yes?

Well Obama will win between 52 and 55 delgates fom VA, Clinton between 28 and 31. So he's exceeded his expectations by about 10-15 delegates. Indeed, he could well win VA by 27 delegates, one less than the margin in New Jersey and Massachusetts combined - who says just the big states count