List of potential upset victories in the presidential election

[redeagleofficial]

Trump has a loyal base which leaves him with a very low floor.  His ceiling is relatively low by analytical data, but things like trends and national unusual events like terror attacks/wars could raise it as well as dem scandals.  New Mexico is the sneak upset state to watch IMO, which will shock a lot of people on the forum because of the fact that it went blue by 8 in 2016.  The 2-way poll had Trump minus 2 to HRC, and internal polls from Johnson/Weld showed 75% of their voters would have broken to Trump.  If Trump can make grounds with Latinos, which many approval polls have indicated, as well as get out the white working class (which is sizable in New Mexico), it is possible.

For the Democrats, Georgia is a possibility.  I think that it is more like 2004's Virginia, it will go red for one election cycle and vote to the right of the country for the next 2, no matter who wins the state.  After that, it will be relatively gone unless the GOP finds a way to make inroads in the suburbs, which is still in the realm of possibility.

[redeagleofficial]

Kansas flipping dem wouldn’t be an upset. Everyone with a brain can seen it will flip

>why i sent my audience here

[redeagleofficial]

Kansas flipping dem wouldn’t be an upset. Everyone with a brain can seen it will flip

>why i sent my audience here

All but 5 posters(At most) have KS as Likely R or Safe R . The tossup KS is mainly used as a meme and the full meme was Tossup KS and Tossup RI because of trends .

In your video you acted like most of the forum thought that which is not even close to true

The swing state KS meme was also based on a congressional seat flipping in 2018, as well as the election of a Democratic governor.

I think if we had an absolute Democratic tsunami, where the bottom falls out completely from under Trump, Kansas is more winnable than, say, Indiana. It would be like a Republican winning Oregon, which ordinarily could be a thing, but simply not possible in 2020.

Yah but it wasnt something people put in official battleground maps

I have it as Safe Likely D, as its going to go something like Dem 52-43