NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[AltWorlder]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

Biden's also polling down in NE-02, though, which would close this path.

There is no more fitting way for democracy to end than on a 269-269 tie due to an archaic points system in which one of the 50 member states uses a different allocation methodology to flip one point to the lagging candidate - and the majority of members who vote in the tiebreak system support the candidate that would have had a majority, but they are grouped into 50 separate lots, of which the majority of lots cast their votes for the lagging candidate.

American Democracy more or less ended in 2000 anyway, we've been treading water since then

[AltWorlder]

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

Trump could die. Trump could go to jail. Biden could die. Israel could set off a nuke. Russia could set off a nuke. The economy could tank. Anything could happen by November. In a world that is increasingly chaotic and turbulent, I truly think nothing is set in stone.

[AltWorlder]

Have to wonder if the ANZAC nations' politics are less cooked than the rest of the Anglosphere