Reignman
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,236
Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.65
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« on: February 15, 2005, 01:27:44 AM » |
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Since Truman, we've had:
2 terms of GOP in the White House
2 terms of Dems
2 terms of GOP
1 terms of Dems
3 terms of GOP
2 terms of Dems
2 terms of GOP
Aside from that Carter/Reagan/Bush I hiccup, we've seen the White House see-saw back and forth every 8 years.
In the elections following two terms of one parties control, we have
1960- White House changes control
1968- White House changes control
1976- White House changes control
1988- White House doesn't change control
2000- White House changes control
However, in the elections following a president serving two full terms, we have
1960- White House changes control
1988- White House doesn't change control
2000- White House changes control
Therefore, if Bush completely serves his 2nd term, it would seem that chances that the Dems will take back the White House are worse. You can argue that the only reason the White House changed control in '68 and '76 was unpopular current presidents (or, in '76, Nixon and not Ford, but then, Ford wasn't even elected). If you argue this, it might be hard to believe that a 2/3 probability of the White House changing control isn't enough to justify a historical advantage for Democrats.
On the other hand, the reason the White House seems to change control every 8 years may simply be a desire for change that voters have after a couple terms of the same party. This could have something to do with them (with the exception of the last few years) typically voting Democrats into Congress when Republicans won 5 of 6 presidential elections, and then when Clinton got in, the GOP got the House and Senate.
Of course, some would argue that the Democrats have far too many problems to whip themselves into shape anytime soon, but they've learned quite a few lessons just as the GOP did in '64, and pundits were saying the same thing about Republicans after the 1992 election.
To quote Bush Sr. when Bush Jr. announced he was running in 2000, "What goes around comes around."
Or not. Maybe the GOP is gonna win in 2008. Just a few thoughts about a historical pattern with American presidential elections in the last 50 years or so.
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