Some points/explanations:
- Some political scientists consider it the biggest defeat of Fidesz since the lost election in 2006.
- Some suggest Fidesz internal polling has been wrong and they did not see this coming.
- Apparently Marki-Zay was a good, attractive candidate, and his opponent was invisible.
- Low turnout favors Fidesz, but this time turnout was very high. The Fidesz candidate got the same amount of votes as in 2014. It's the opposition candidate who managed to mobilize those who oppose Fidesz.
- Dissatisfaction with the national Fidesz government; easily expressed in a second-order election. The question remains whether people will also vote this way in a first-order, parliamentary election. People will vote for parties then, mostly not for independents. They may be willing to get themselves to the polls for an independent in a local election, but will they actually want to express a vote for MSZP, DK, LMP or Jobbik?
- Myth of "inevitability" and "invincibility" of Fidesz shattered. Opposition feels empowered.
Thanks, that's good info. Do you know if there was there a particular issue that Marki-Zay ran on?