Neil Gorsuch Confirmation Process Discussion (confirmed 54-45)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

What happens when we come at an instance in time where the law substantially based on the moment?

translation?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

It's kind of funny that the republican senate leadership is willing to go nuclear to confirm a guy that essentially said he might vote to uphold Roe vs. Wade. That is supposed to be the #1 court case republicans want to overturn, and yet the guy they're about to confirm is someone who at times in his hearing seemed close to endorsing the verdict as is.

That's a misunderstanding of what he said.  He said it was a precedent, and so is due the respect of precedent.  But precedents can be overturned.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

It's kind of funny that the republican senate leadership is willing to go nuclear to confirm a guy that essentially said he might vote to uphold Roe vs. Wade. That is supposed to be the #1 court case republicans want to overturn, and yet the guy they're about to confirm is someone who at times in his hearing seemed close to endorsing the verdict as is.

That's a misunderstanding of what he said.  He said it was a precedent, and so is due the respect of precedent.  But precedents can be overturned.

Absolutely - Even if Scalia was there, he would say he respects the precedent. There is considerable chance that Gorsuch may vote to over-turn Roe vs Wade but is it really possible. I can't see even Roberts going against Roe v Wade (Kennedy will be with the 4 Liberal judges). Full over-turn is very hard, maybe they will put some restrictions - Will even Alito vote against Roe vs Wade full overturn?

While Rode vs Wade looks very hard, gay marriage isn't. It was 5-4 right? If Kennedy goes & Trump appoints a conservative judge or it something bad happens to 84 year old RBG, then surely it is possible that gay marriage is over-turned. But then Trump is privately possibly for gay marriage - So would he appoint when he is in the company of Pence, Cruz & crazy Republicans?

There will be an open war for the next Supreme Court seat !

Except that Obergefell has that reliance interest that Gorsuch talked about. Overturn it and you have people's established relationships put in a precarious position.  I don't see it overturned in any way that would allow banning of gay marriage, though the language of the decision might be scaled back for the sake of its implications on other issues related to sexuality.

Roe v Wade is more likely to be chipped away through a series of decisions than overturned all at once, though I wouldn't put anything out of the question on the issue.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

It's kind of funny that the republican senate leadership is willing to go nuclear to confirm a guy that essentially said he might vote to uphold Roe vs. Wade. That is supposed to be the #1 court case republicans want to overturn, and yet the guy they're about to confirm is someone who at times in his hearing seemed close to endorsing the verdict as is.

That's a misunderstanding of what he said.  He said it was a precedent, and so is due the respect of precedent.  But precedents can be overturned.

Absolutely - Even if Scalia was there, he would say he respects the precedent. There is considerable chance that Gorsuch may vote to over-turn Roe vs Wade but is it really possible. I can't see even Roberts going against Roe v Wade (Kennedy will be with the 4 Liberal judges). Full over-turn is very hard, maybe they will put some restrictions - Will even Alito vote against Roe vs Wade full overturn?

While Rode vs Wade looks very hard, gay marriage isn't. It was 5-4 right? If Kennedy goes & Trump appoints a conservative judge or it something bad happens to 84 year old RBG, then surely it is possible that gay marriage is over-turned. But then Trump is privately possibly for gay marriage - So would he appoint when he is in the company of Pence, Cruz & crazy Republicans?

There will be an open war for the next Supreme Court seat !

Except that Obergefell has that reliance interest that Gorsuch talked about. Overturn it and you have people's established relationships put in a precarious position.  I don't see it overturned in any way that would allow banning of gay marriage, though the language of the decision might be scaled back for the sake of its implications on other issues related to sexuality.

Roe v Wade is more likely to be chipped away through a series of decisions than overturned all at once, though I wouldn't put anything out of the question on the issue.

I agree, Rode Vs Wage will likely be chipped away but due to the long precedence, I see it very hard to be repealed. With gay marriage, they can reason they support civil unions & states are free to allow or disallow it & what is explicitly not mentioned, should be left to the states.

I just see it more easily to be overturned than Roe vs Wade? Wasn't Roe vs Wade 7-2 such a long time back vs a 5-4 decision much more recently?

Chipping away at both laws could certainly happen. I don't know if conservatives believe that they can fully over-turn Roe vs Wade !

How long ago it was and whether it was closely decided are not necessarily very influential.  There have been plenty of unanimous or lopsided decisions that were reversed some years later. Social disruption and confusion about the status of individuals and relationships are more likely to be critical factors.  The Court is almost certain to take up more abortion cases, but less likely to take up a direct challenge to gay marriage I would think.  Obergefell provided a more straightforward decision, as opposed to abortion jurisprudence which has always been murky about what restrictions are allowed and what aren't under Roe and especially Casey. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

By more right-wing on free speech than Scalia you mean he would be more consistent in defense of it?   Okay, possibly.