PA-Mason Dixon: Good news for J.J. & Co.

[TheGlobalizer]

Probably a little too favorable for McCain, but M-D is reliable enough to give them the benefit of the doubt.  As others routinely say -- it's a data point, move on.

[TheGlobalizer]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

At first, this was annoying.

But now, every time I see an opebo post, I start to smile.

[TheGlobalizer]

In other words, the undecided electorate is about 79% white, 11% latino, 10% black.

Ok, so undecideds will break about 8 to 2 for McCain.

LOL.

Classic.

[TheGlobalizer]

Under the assumptions suggested by Nate Silver on 538 (undecided whites split 2:1 for McCain, blacks split 9:1 for Obama, latinos split 3:2 for Obama, meaning that each group breaks slightly more for McCain than they have so far) the polling numbers give an nationwide undecided split of 58-42 in favor of McCain. 

This is a good example of why I think 538 = garbage.

Excessive fixation on numbers over realities.