The way I see it, there are seven things that might allow McCain to close the gap:
-a Michelle Obama whitey tape
-a scandal of the live boy or dead girl variety
-Russia invades Ukraine and/or the Baltics
-North Korea invades South Korea
-a major terrorist attack on a US city
-Bin Laden is captured or confirmed dead as a result of US military action
-the Mother of all Bradley Effects on election day. Of course, to win McCain would need a Bradely Effect even bigger than the Bradley Effect in the original Bradley Effect elections back in the 80s.
Agree, more or less, but I'd add the possibility that the likely voter models are jacked up. I'm not skeptical that there is a shift, just the scope of that shift. The numbers are doing some funny things this year.
