who is second most likely to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2012?

[TheGlobalizer]

Biden isn't even third most likely, IMO.

[TheGlobalizer]

Biden isn't even third most likely, IMO.

Al Gore?

No, but not Biden.  Maybe Cuomo, though he's still got time.

I'm not saying it's likely at all.  Hillary is #2 by far, everyone else is in assassination-land.

[TheGlobalizer]

Biden isn't even third most likely, IMO.

Al Gore?

No, but not Biden.  Maybe Cuomo, though he's still got time.

I'm not saying it's likely at all.  Hillary is #2 by far, everyone else is in assassination-land.

And how and where and why is assassination-land, fantastically unlikely as it is, even remotely as fantastically unlikely as hypothetical bizarre other scenario?

I don't understand your question.  I'm saying that it looks a bit like this:

Obama 99.9%
Hillary 0.1%
everything else* 0.00001%

* - assassination or other unforeseen disaster, etc. affecting Obama

Hillary is on the board because Obama could have an epic collapse (he's shown a proclivity for splitting the difference and pissing everyone off in the process) and Hillary would be the natural replacement.

[TheGlobalizer]

Yeah, you see, such an epic collapse would not only be no more likely than an assassination (or natural death, incapacitation due to contraction of leprosy, etc pp) on its own, it would also be rather unlikely to actually lead to Obama bowing out, instead it would simply lead to him losing the general election.

Disagree, collapse resulting in replacement is far more likely than assassination.

[TheGlobalizer]

Yeah, you see, such an epic collapse would not only be no more likely than an assassination (or natural death, incapacitation due to contraction of leprosy, etc pp) on its own, it would also be rather unlikely to actually lead to Obama bowing out, instead it would simply lead to him losing the general election.

Disagree, collapse resulting in replacement is far more likely than assassination.

One has only happened, to the best of my knowledge, once, before the Civil War (Pierce)--maybe twice if that's your interpretation of what happened to LBJ. Death in office has happened eight times.

I'm not talking about historical statistics, I'm talking about Obama.