Kentucky - Concord Public Partners - Beshear +8 (under 50%).

[Alben Barkley]

Still think this race will be a nailbiter, just like the last one. It's an unstoppable force meets an immovable object: One candidate is a white good ol' boy who's broadly liked but also is a Democrat while the other is a black man devoid of charisma tied to the hated McConnell, but also is a Republican endorsed by Trump.

Will be interesting to see which factors win out this time. I never really doubted that Bevin was hated enough last time to sink him, but this time has been another story. Nobody hates Cameron like Bevin (except for the real diehard racists I guess) but nobody loves him either. Beshear, it's either love or hate. The election is almost perfectly balanced; I think Beshear takes it by the skin of his teeth, but I'd love to be wrong and see a Democratic landslide by Kentucky standards at least.

Honestly it's surreal: We had one of the LEAST popular governors in the country barely lose last time due to his party affiliation, and we may have one of the MOST popular governors in the country either barely win or barely lose this time for the same reason but in the opposite direction. Kentucky is a testing ground for the power of approval ratings vs. partisanship.

[Alben Barkley]

Still think this race will be a nailbiter, just like the last one. It's an unstoppable force meets an immovable object: One candidate is a white good ol' boy who's broadly liked but also is a Democrat while the other is a black man devoid of charisma tied to the hated McConnell, but also is a Republican endorsed by Trump.

Will be interesting to see which factors win out this time. I never really doubted that Bevin was hated enough last time to sink him, but this time has been another story. Nobody hates Cameron like Bevin (except for the real diehard racists I guess) but nobody loves him either. Beshear, it's either love or hate. The election is almost perfectly balanced; I think Beshear takes it by the skin of his teeth, but I'd love to be wrong and see a Democratic landslide by Kentucky standards at least.

Honestly it's surreal: We had one of the LEAST popular governors in the country barely lose last time due to his party affiliation, and we may have one of the MOST popular governors in the country either barely win or barely lose this time for the same reason but in the opposite direction. Kentucky is a testing ground for the power of approval ratings vs. partisanship.

Do you think the race has closed recently or was it always going to be like this?

Based on discussions with coworkers, yard signs, etc. it really DOES feel like the race has closed recently. But that itself may have been inevitable, so it may not be an either/or thing: We've seen time and time again in recent years that liberals/Democrats are often more proactive in supporting their candidates while conservatives/Republicans come home towards the end. All I can tell you is there was a time when I drove through Boyle County (a key swing county) and the city of Danville and saw Beshear signs all over the place and zero Cameron signs, yet a couple days ago they seemed almost evenly matched.

[Alben Barkley]

Still think this race will be a nailbiter, just like the last one. It's an unstoppable force meets an immovable object: One candidate is a white good ol' boy who's broadly liked but also is a Democrat while the other is a black man devoid of charisma tied to the hated McConnell, but also is a Republican endorsed by Trump.

Will be interesting to see which factors win out this time. I never really doubted that Bevin was hated enough last time to sink him, but this time has been another story. Nobody hates Cameron like Bevin (except for the real diehard racists I guess) but nobody loves him either. Beshear, it's either love or hate. The election is almost perfectly balanced; I think Beshear takes it by the skin of his teeth, but I'd love to be wrong and see a Democratic landslide by Kentucky standards at least.

Honestly it's surreal: We had one of the LEAST popular governors in the country barely lose last time due to his party affiliation, and we may have one of the MOST popular governors in the country either barely win or barely lose this time for the same reason but in the opposite direction. Kentucky is a testing ground for the power of approval ratings vs. partisanship.

Do you think the race has closed recently or was it always going to be like this?

Based on discussions with coworkers, yard signs, etc. it really DOES feel like the race has closed recently. But that itself may have been inevitable, so it may not be an either/or thing: We've seen time and time again in recent years that liberals/Democrats are often more proactive in supporting their candidates while conservatives/Republicans come home towards the end. All I can tell you is there was a time when I drove through Boyle County (a key swing county) and the city of Danville and saw Beshear signs all over the place and zero Cameron signs, yet a couple days ago they seemed almost evenly matched.

So Cameron just brought people who were always going to vote for him to his camp?

Considering most of the polls showed Beshear ahead but never at 50%, yeah pretty much. He got disengaged voters engaged. And now it's probably about 50/50, which will make this a real nailbiter.

As I've said, I hope I'm wrong and Beshear really does win by like 8 points.