Beshear has done enough good to win reelection even if it is a very Republican state. And I wouldn't discount race being a factor. Parts of the state are going to be reluctant to vote out a White incumbent for a Black challenger. If he loses it wouldn't be all about race, but I'm very curious to see how the numbers come back in some of the eastern counties.
I did mention in another thread, this could be an underrated factor. It's kinda taboo to talk about, and it is true that black Republicans have won in other red Southern states like SC before. But man, I've been to some of those eastern counties, hell my family is from Harlan originally. And I too will be interested in seeing how they vote. I think Beshear can win even if most of the counties he won in the region before flip, but I don't expect Cameron to win them by landslide margins either. And race might be part of the reason why. In a very close race, it could well even be decisive. Kinda messed up but it is what it is.
This state is not the racist hellhole California liberals may view it as by any means, but that doesn't mean there isn't still an undercurrent of people who are very uncomfortable voting for a black person. There's a reason certain counties in KY, counties that voted for f--king Kerry, shifted so dramatically right when Obama was on the ballot, and it's not all just trends. There's a reason Hillary absolutely crushed Obama in KY more than most any other state. I was frankly a little surprised Cameron won the GOP nomination at all, but now that he has and more people are paying attention, it won't be a factor that HELPS him, let me just put it that way. His lack of charisma is, however, the much bigger factor. As is his inability to launch anything but petty culture war attacks against Beshear, as Kentuckians know his time in office has been a success and generally approve of and like him.
