I have no idea but…
Hobbs’ refusal to debate Lake was a serious and stupid error.
Gretchen Whitmer debated Tudor Dixon.
Raphael Warnock debated Herschel Walker.
Makes no sense to me why Hobbs ducked out of debates with Lake when she arguably had more to gain and less to lose than those two.
As for the OP question: Lake has run a better campaign and is a stronger candidate. She's photogenic and is well-known as a TV personality in Arizona. She may have equally crazy views as Mastriano, but doesn't come across as a raving lunatic the way he does. Arizona is also a fundamentally more R state at the state level. It would be quite surprising if it elected a Republican senator and Democratic governor at the same time while the same wouldn't be so surprising for Pennsylvania. Tom Wolf won Pennsylvania by 17(!) points in 2018, and Shapiro is such a popular figure with such a moderate reputation some GOP ads in the state are literally positively comparing him to Fetterman. Last time Arizona had a Democratic governor was Janet Napolitano. Hobbs does not seem like a very strong candidate in comparison. I hope she wins, but if she does it will probably be due to a combination of Arizona continuing to trend left (probably especially against Trumpy candidates) and the national environment being bluer than expected. And perhaps she can especially thank Dobbs for the win. Because without it I'd think she's all but dead in the water.
