VA-GOV (Wason): McAuliffe +1

[Alben Barkley]

If it wasn't for the Loudoun County stuff going on now (which I wasn't aware of before), I wouldn't be even remotely nervous about this race. But that might be the kind of thing that could really give the GOP a boost in a state like VA (lots of suburban voters concerned about their kids). And it doesn't help that T-Mac and then Obama while campaigning for him basically just wrote off the rape of a girl because it wasn't convenient to the narrative that something like that NEVER could happen. Not a good look. Guess we'll find out, if the race is closer than it should be or if Youngkin even manages to pull it off somehow, just how powerful that kind of culture war stuff can really be. This is our first real test of that and our first glimpse into whether or not the GOP strategy they have set up for the midterms will be a success.

Anyway, no longer sure this is much of a safe lock as I thought, I'm walking that back. I still think T-Mac is a bigger favorite than the polls suggest, but not completely safe due to the potential for these factors to affect the race and an unclear picture of who will turn out. In CA, predictions that Rs would vote in massively greater numbers turned out to be totally wrong, but that might have been at least partly because they literally mailed ballots to everyone. VA doesn't do that.

[Alben Barkley]

If it wasn't for the Loudoun County stuff going on now (which I wasn't aware of before), I wouldn't be even remotely nervous about this race. But that might be the kind of thing that could really give the GOP a boost in a state like VA (lots of suburban voters concerned about their kids). And it doesn't help that T-Mac and then Obama while campaigning for him basically just wrote off the rape of a girl because it wasn't convenient to the narrative that something like that NEVER could happen. Not a good look. Guess we'll find out, if the race is closer than it should be or if Youngkin even manages to pull it off somehow, just how powerful that kind of culture war stuff can really be. This is our first real test of that and our first glimpse into whether or not the GOP strategy they have set up for the midterms will be a success.

Anyway, no longer sure this is much of a safe lock as I thought, I'm walking that back. I still think T-Mac is a bigger favorite than the polls suggest, but not completely safe due to the potential for these factors to affect the race and an unclear picture of who will turn out. In CA, predictions that Rs would vote in massively greater numbers turned out to be totally wrong, but that might have been at least partly because they literally mailed ballots to everyone. VA doesn't do that.

How is the Loudon County thing automatically something negative for Ds? Nothing about that situation is political, so why would it help the GOP?

And Obama did not mention anything specific to that situation last week (obviously) - he mentioned the culture war education BS that the GOP has been pushing, like CRT, etc. It's clear that's what he was talking about.

You are making the classic Dem mistake of using logic and reason, and assuming that voters will think the same way. Not how it works, sadly. It is completely and totally irrelevant if the situation itself is or should be political or not; it has already been insanely politicized. (Also, a Superintendent is technically a political figure, and covering up details of a crime in an attempt to get a policy goal of yours passed is blatantly political, so...) And Obama has now been personally blasted by the parents of the victim for his remarks. Again, bad LOOK, regardless of what the intent was. That's what SO MANY Dems don't seem to get about politics; it is NOT about what ACTUALLY is, let alone what SHOULD be. It is about how things LOOK above all else. OPTICS. It baffles me I still even have to say this.