Which of these events is the least likely

[Alben Barkley]

Depends on the timescale. WV and WY voting Democratic is highly unlikely in the short term, obviously, but if we're talking about the next 50 years for that (and all of the others for that matter), it's not so crazy. Hell, would have seemed crazy 50 years ago to think WV would be so Republican today. If we're talking about 50 years for all of them, or just ever, I think Quebec actually seceding is the least likely. The movement for that seems to just be decreasing in power and the odds of it ever happening shrinking over time. I don't see what is likely to reverse that. The moment for that to happen came and went. If it didn't happen in 1995 I don't see it ever happening. That was the high water mark for the movement and it's been all downhill from there.