Why did Stevenson win Missouri in 1956? (user search)
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  Why did Stevenson win Missouri in 1956? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why did Stevenson win Missouri in 1956?  (Read 2382 times)
Alben Barkley
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« on: April 24, 2021, 05:27:32 PM »

Adlai Stevenson lost three other Southern/border states he won in 1952 (Kentucky, West Virginia, and Louisiana) and lost ground in others, yet somehow managed to flip Missouri in 1956. I can’t seem to find any explanation as to why. If anything you’d think Harry Truman’s presence as the incumbent president might have made it more likely to be the other way around, with Stevenson winning the state in 1952 but losing it in 1956 due to Ike’s popularity that managed to breach the Solid South and easily won the rest of the Midwest. Yet instead Ike narrowly won it in 1952 and narrowly lost it in 1956, the only state that flipped from him to Stevenson. This marked the only time Missouri was not a bellwether in the century between 1904 and 2004, making it an even stranger anomaly.

Does anyone know how or why this happened?
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
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Posts: 19,284
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« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2021, 09:19:46 PM »

why didn't ike do better in the deep south?

adlai was a liberal intellectual. Ike was a war hero from modest, non-east coast roots.

It wasn’t the first time Southerners happily voted for a liberal intellectual over a Northern (moderately) conservative Republican.

It was pretty much the last time however. And Ike made it WAY closer in the South than Dewey, Willkie, Landon, and most Republicans before them. He won Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, and Florida twice. He came very close to winning the Carolinas. As noted, he flipped Louisiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia the second time. He even made states like Arkansas and Alabama close compared to previous margins for Republicans there.

If anything, Ike’s gains in the South are too often underlooked; they were a sign of things to come and proof that the shift of the region from solidly Democratic territory was already well underway by that point (largely in response to the increasing social liberalism of FDR, Truman, and Stevenson). And that Southerners could and would vote Republican under the right circumstances, not just protest vote for Dixiecrats. Nixon and Goldwater would just solidify this.

In fact, Ike campaigned in the South against the advice of his campaign which wanted to write it off. Turns out he had the right instincts.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
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*****
Posts: 19,284
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2021, 09:23:37 PM »

Ike went from winning Missouri by 2% to losing it by 0.2%.  The swing isn't that significant.  

This is like asking "why did FDR win Michigan in 1944?"  Yes, he had lost it four years earlier (and the Midwest generally swung right in 1944), but it's a matter of a 1-point win versus a 0.3-point loss.

Obviously the swing wasn’t huge but it is a bit of an oddity nonetheless.

Perhaps the explanation about parts of the rural midwest swinging against him explains it, but even then I’m not sure why. Was there some kind of agricultural crisis I’m not aware of?
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