I actually have to side a bit with Beet on this one.
Although Biden still is favored, the recent changes this past week have been somewhat disturbing.
Now, some of it is statistical noise/deviation, and Beet’s worst case scenario idea is unlikely to happen, but let’s look at the poll averages.
Biden is now at +5.8. I think this number could be lower than what it really is, but we don’t know. What I can say is, this is Trump’s best polling average since May.
Additionally, Trump actually has led in a poll on RCP for the first time since February. Yes, it’s a Rassy, but even Biden was leading in Rassy polls since...well last year.
I think it’s likely this is just noise, but if it doesn’t revert back within two weeks, I would be extremely concerned.
1. RCP is garbage.
2. FiveThirtyEight has shown no notable change nationally.
3. The state polls are if anything improving for Biden.
4. Rasmussen is garbage and should not be taken seriously no matter what it says. In fact, according to their own polls, Biden is set to lose the popular vote yet win the electoral college. Including Ohio.
