Latino Decisions: Biden +42 nationally (leads in swing states too)

[Alben Barkley]

But... but... I was told Biden had a Latino voter problem?

[Alben Barkley]

But... but... I was told Biden had a Latino voter problem?

He is. LD is basically a D-Internal.
+ He's heavily underperforming in Florida, the most important state this election, next to Pennsylvania.

1. No it’s not. It’s the most reliable poll of Latinos.

2. No he’s not. Most polls show him with a significant lead in Florida overall. And as mentioned, he’s not underperforming with Latinos there compared to 2018. The 2016 numbers could have been off, and regardless this is a poll, with undecideds and margin of error (especially outside the topline numbers), not actual election results. Good chance he will do even better when people vote.

3. Florida is the most important state for Trump. He HAS to win it. Biden doesn’t, yet he is anyway. And if he does lose it but still wins some combination of MI/WI/PA/NC/AZ, he wins.

So no, he does not have a Latino voter problem. What is your basis for this claim? Your precious little snowflake feelings? Sure isn’t actual evidence or data, that’s for damn sure.

[Alben Barkley]

But... but... I was told Biden had a Latino voter problem?

Latino Decision Poll from right before the 2016 election:
Nationwide:  79% Clinton, 18% Trump
Arizona: 84% Clinton, 12% Trump
Florida: 67% Clinton, 31% Trump
North Carolina: 82% Clinton, 15% Trump
Pennsylvania: not polled

So nationwide, that's Democrats going from +61 to +42, with Trump gaining 6% in absolute terms.
In Arizona, Democrats are going from +72 to +34, with Trump gaining 17% in absolute terms.
In Florida, Democrats are going from +36 to +14, with Trump gaining 10% in absolute terms.
In North Carolina, Democrats are going from +67 to +37, with Trump gaining 13% in absolute terms.

So, yeah, he does?

You really should have stopped at “right before the 2016 election.”  Could have saved yourself some time and embarrassment.

That is obviously apples to oranges and irrelevant for several reasons:

1. This poll is not right before the election; that one was. Biden continues to show improvement with Latinos in every new poll here, no reason he couldn’t right up until the election.

2. That poll obviously significantly overestimated Hillary’s margins with Latinos compared to what she actually got. Many pollsters have changed their methodology in an attempt to be more accurate following 2016. Thus that could explain why Biden’s numbers look closer to actual 2016/2018 numbers already. And certainly plenty good enough to win.

So no, he doesn’t.