Good thing that JBE pulled through, but those rural 2015 -> 2019 trends do not bode well for a far-left candidate like Warren or Sanders next year.
Obama was not wrong yesterday:
It needs more of a centrist, or Trump wins again powered by these rural voters.
Pretty much any Democrat is going to get clobbered in the rural areas, and is going to rely on the cities/suburbs to win. This idea that "swing voters" care about ideology, or that a large number of Republicans and "moderates" will vote for Biden with a spring in their step but flock to Trump if Warren is the nominee (while Democratic/progressive turnout isn't stronger for Warren) is ludicrous. Democrats win by being authentic and standing by their principles, not simply being "moderate."
Show me at least one "real progressive" Democrat winning statewide in Louisiana. Or Mississippi. Or Alabama. Idiocy.When needed (to prevent victory of worse candidate) "principles" may be temporerily thrown into basket. Politics is "an art of compromise", not a competition who is more "principled"...
In a national election? No Democrat is winning those states. And yes, thank you for Moderate Herosplaining politics to an "idiot" like me (funny, I thought partisans were the unreasonable ones who threw insults around), but "compromise" without having a larger goal or principle in mind is a meaningless buzzword and accomplishes nothing. Again, I'm not saying being liberal is an electoral golden ticket either, since that's just as silly as claiming that being "moderate" magically makes one more electable, I'm saying authenticity is the key. Whether a Democrat is moderate or more left-leaning, they need to come across as truly believing in what they're selling.
A “progressive” could not win even a state election like this is his point, and he’s right.
You are massively downplaying the significance of ideology and massively overplaying the importance of “authenticity.” Yes Democrats are gonna lose most rural areas these days, but as has been pointed out in this thread, margins matter a LOT. There is an ENORMOUS difference between losing them 60-40 and 80-20, and that can make or break an election. So you can’t just handwave away the potential Democratic voters there, or more moderate voters in the suburbs for that matter.
And you can’t pretend they would vote for AOC or something, in any election, because she’s “authentic,” whatever the hell that means exactly. Yes it certainly helps to be perceived as likable and relatable, or for your opponent to be the opposite — that’s in part how Beshear won despite running on a fairly liberal platform, including pro-choice. But it’s just naive to say that a candidate perceived as far left like AOC would have fared just as well as JBE in Louisiana, or Beshear in Kentucky. There are certain issues swing voters in these states won’t budge on, no matter how “authentic” or not the candidates are. And a lot of times it’s more than even just issues; a perception as an extreme ideologue can hurt a candidate even if it’s not really accurate.
It needs to keep being said: Despite the fact that left-wing internet sees Hillary as all but a Republican, reality is most Americans saw her as more extreme than Trump. For Democrats to win we have to break that perception, not double down on it. Yes, she wasn’t seen as “authentic” either. But the thing is, Joe Biden comes off as both more authentic AND more moderate than Hillary to middle America. So maybe it’s time to start taking those polls showing him crushing Trump seriously and stop straining the math to explain how ackshually Bernie/Warren/Buttigieg/whoever would do better. And it’s definitely time for deluded egomaniacs like Bloomberg and Patrick to stop entering the race thinking they’re gonna save the party when it’s just fine without them.
