1952: Truman vs. Nixon

[Alben Barkley]

Everyone said that Truman was done, had no chance, etc. in 1948. Look how that turned out!

All the polls said he would lose (although they did start to tighten up towards the end).

The TV networks literally only had graphics prepared for a Republican victory.

The radio announcers were insisting all night Dewey would win even as the returns came in and it became increasingly clear he would not.

And of course, the Chicago Tribune infamously printed "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" as their next day headline.

And... He actually flipped some Dewey states from 1944, and improved on FDR's margins in others! His overall electoral victory was very comfortable, even with the Dixiecrats splitting the vote in the South!

You have to remember polling was still in its infancy and was not very reliable at the time, and the nation as a whole was less polarized so the polls would often shift rapidly in large swings with public opinion. If  "Give 'em Hell Harry" could pull off another campaign like 1948? Just maybe he could have beaten the odds again. He was one of the most, if not THE most, underrated politicians and campaigners in modern history. His ability to campaign on the stump and connect to the common man was insane. One-on-one he would have destroyed Tricky Dick.

Ike? Yeah, I'll concede Ike probably would have killed him, as he would have anybody that year. But Nixon? I think Truman would have at the very least had a fighting chance against him. He could have torn Nixon apart on his lack of experience and his awkward, shifty persona.

Also I don't believe the Dixiecrats would have pulled their third party stunt again; their whole original goal was to force an electoral deadlock, but when it became clear they couldn't do that effectively they decided not to try it again until 1968 (and to a much lesser extent 1960, when only Mississippi and kind of Alabama rebelled). As it was, Stevenson was hardly a Southern Democrat or any less progressive on Civil Rights than Truman was. They nonetheless did not challenge him. They likely would not have Truman either, so he would have probably swept the whole South this time (when he would actually be on the ballot), in addition to still at least having a shot in much of the Midwest and West he won before. It would be a mistake to rule him out.