Predict how polls will change after the debates

[Alben Barkley]

Biden holds steady, maybe gains a couple points.

Harris plummets back to where she was before the first debate, down to the single digits and out of top-tier territory. She and Booker needed desperately to eat into Biden’s black support, and I just don’t see that happening. Harris opened up a small window of opportunity in the first debate, but that seems pretty much closed now.

Buttigieg’s 15 minutes seemed mostly over already, and the debate did nothing to change that. He probably goes back down to low single digits.

Warren and Sanders will continue to split the lefty vote, roughly tied for second and hovering 15+ points below Biden. If one or the other dropped out, they may have a chance to actually compete with Biden (I think Warren has the better chance), but Bernie’s ego is too big for that and I don’t see Warren dropping out while she’s still riding pretty high.

Most of the rest are pretty much done at this point. This was their last chance to break out and they just didn’t. I don’t see any gaining much ground. Hell, Marianne Williamson may have a better chance to gain a couple points than any of the other bottom-feeders.