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News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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Author Topic: 538.com map  (Read 52727 times)
Sbane
sbane
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« on: September 12, 2008, 08:43:32 PM »
« edited: September 12, 2008, 08:45:50 PM by sbane »
Quote from: Zarn on September 12, 2008, 03:44:20 PM
Illinois? Really? Illinois?

You sure?

Well you have to remember Kerry only won the state by 10 points. I doubt Obama is going to have a huge impact on that number. Same thing with AZ as it also voted for Bush by 10 points. We can expect them to swing towards Obama and Mccain but it won't be that big of an impact.

Edit: Moving AZ now in the middle of the Mccain bounce is a bit weird.
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Sbane
sbane
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Posts: 15,326
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2008, 03:44:39 AM »
Quote from: TheGlobalizer on October 12, 2008, 12:51:51 AM
Quote from: tokar on October 11, 2008, 08:02:48 PM
Quote from: TheGlobalizer on October 11, 2008, 05:51:26 PM
Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

the way it should be....

Disagree.  Projections are accurate if election is in the next 48 hours, but it isn't.

You are right because projections cannot account for the unpredictability of a campaign. But they do give a very good snapshot of where the election is currently.
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