If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain. Why? Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.
To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states. If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all.
The problem is that he could have also gained in states like OH and PA. Even if Palin didn't help in FL I still think Mccain has a good shot of winning it in the end. OH was more 50/50 but it seems like it is slipping away. VA might be a place where Obama could target even more heavily. The good thing is that CO seems to have solidified for Obama although I would like to see some more polls.
