Biden gets mixed welcome in Philly.. Good read from Philadelphia Daily News

[Sbane]

I will continue to trust the polls. I never thought Philly was going to give the same margin for Obama as it did for Kerry or Gore. It could still happen depending on how blacks voted in 2004, because we know they will give 95%+ to Obama and they will turn out heavily. But he will lose ground in NE philly and Bucks which he must make up somewhere else in the state. I would guess it is in Amish country and the phila burbs. I want to see some poll where they break down their results by area and compare it to Kerry. Has anyone seen anything like that for PA?

[Sbane]

I will continue to trust the polls. I never thought Philly was going to give the same margin for Obama as it did for Kerry or Gore. It could still happen depending on how blacks voted in 2004, because we know they will give 95%+ to Obama and they will turn out heavily. But he will lose ground in NE philly and Bucks which he must make up somewhere else in the state. I would guess it is in Amish country and the phila burbs. I want to see some poll where they break down their results by area and compare it to Kerry. Has anyone seen anything like that for PA?

Obama is going to make up his loses in NE Philly and Bucks county in...Amish Country? Seriously?

Uh...yeah...

I meant Lancaster and Chester counties. Those seem to be trending democrat. See the thing is that you guys keep saying Obama is losing everywhere in the state but the polls seem to indicate otherwise. Is there some huge bradley effect going on or something?

[Sbane]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

Well that is reasonable I suppose. So perhaps the average of Obama +5 is closer to +2 or 3 because of Bradley? If the election is close I think that PA will very likely be close.

[Sbane]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

Well that is reasonable I suppose. So perhaps the average of Obama +5 is closer to +2 or 3 because of Bradley? If the election is close I think that PA will very likely be close.

PA will definitely be close. This really shouldn't even be up for debate.

Obama is struggling with the base of the party here  - white, blue collar, Catholic voters - and your ground leaders are actually saying it! You can't win PA without them. Yet many here seem to believe that he'll win by more than Kerry did!

Demographics change buddy. Democrats have such a huge registration advantage in both PA and OH that they can afford some leakage. How much that leakage is, is of course the most important question. Every poll today will show you that somewhere near 92% of republicans are supporting Mccain while around 80% of democrats are supporting Obama. That is why the polls are close.

[Sbane]

Demographics changed that much since 2004. Wow. Interesting.

Different people could be supporting different candidates out there than in 04. Maybe for every vote Obama loses in these blue collar neighborhoods, he gains one in a white collar neighborhood. I am not saying that is how it is but it is a possibility. An individual poll may be incorrect but when your candidate hasn't led for months in any poll, you have to say he is losing. See in 2004 I convinced myself that Kerry was going to win since I could tell he was doing much better than Gore in my upper middle class mostly white suburban town in the bay area. And if you look at the swings you will see Kerry did much better in the bay area, but he still lost. Even California slightly trended towards Bush. So all I am trying to say is that Obama could be gaining votes in a part of the state that might be unexpected but that just might help Obama skate by in november.

[Sbane]

Uh huh... well maybe Harry is really right about his latest MS race too. I hear they have a good ground game down there.

I'm not saying that Obama's going to win PA in a blowout, but come on, can you honestly say that you wouldn't be pretty shocked if McCain carried the state?

While as of right now, I don't think it's going to happen, I wouldn't be shocked if McCain won Pennsylvania.  Remember - Kerry only won the state by 2 points in 2004.  Pennsylvania was closer than Michigan.  Yet everyone calls Michigan a battleground state.

Pennsylvania has the third highest percentage of senior citizens in the country after Florida and West Virginia.  That's usually not a good demographic for Obama - and the one that's perhaps most susceptible to the Bradley/Wilder effect.

Well Kerry won the state by 2 points even while losing nationally by 2. So I would say Mccain at least needs to win by 3 points nationally before he will win PA. I will agree that PA will trend towards republicans this year compared to the national average.

[Sbane]

Where was this almighty Bradley effect in the primary?

What was the RCP average before the vote?

[Sbane]

Where was this almighty Bradley effect in the primary?

What was the RCP average before the vote?

Not sure but the site's was Hillary +11.

Then again it was a democratic primary so many voters could guiltlessly say they were supporting Hillary. Now democrats who are voting based on race may have a tougher time telling pollsters they are going to vote republican.

[Sbane]

Phil there could be a bradley effect amongst independents but I don't see why there would be one amongst republicans. There could be hundreds of reasons why republicans are voting against Obama. If a democrat is voting against Obama then it gets a little tricky. I think there was a slight bradley effect in Pennsylvania during the primaries and I will expect it on election day as well.

[Sbane]

Phil there could be a bradley effect amongst independents but I don't see why there would be one amongst republicans. There could be hundreds of reasons why republicans are voting against Obama. If a democrat is voting against Obama then it gets a little tricky. I think there was a slight bradley effect in Pennsylvania during the primaries and I will expect it on election day as well.

There is going to be a Bradley effect amongst older whites in the area, I can guarantee that.  However, it won't be as pronounced as it was in the 1980s, Northeast Philly being no exception.  The Bradley effect will however be stronger in some wards than other and my call is the 64th will surely flip from D 2004 to R 2008 because of it.  I am also calling for 1 or 2 out of the 26th, 55th or 66th to flip as well.  There will even be a Bradley effect in the more Democratic wards such as the 41st, 58th and 65th as well.  I have rethought my process here.  One thing I have noticed in most recent elections here is the Democrats have always been perceived as the "black man's party."  2000 and 2004 were no different.  It has always looked worse on the surface for the Democrats here in the months leading up to the election.  Guess what has happened in the end ultimately?  Yeah, I have bragging rights, but Phil does make some interesting arguments.       

Yes since the primaries I have always felt PA was a crucial state for Obama in the general. All this favorable polling has put my mind to ease but you are correct that PA,OH and other states with high working class dems with racial problems will have a bradley effect. I think nationally it might not be so pronounced but in these states it could account for 2-3 points. But considering PA has been polling about d+4-5 for a while now I am not so worried. I bet Obama will do a little worse than Kerry in parts of philly and western pa but will make it up with the philly burbs and certain parts of the T. It very well could be a similar result to 2004 even with Obama winning the election. 

[Sbane]

Phil there could be a bradley effect amongst independents but I don't see why there would be one amongst republicans. There could be hundreds of reasons why republicans are voting against Obama. If a democrat is voting against Obama then it gets a little tricky. I think there was a slight bradley effect in Pennsylvania during the primaries and I will expect it on election day as well.

There is going to be a Bradley effect amongst older whites in the area, I can guarantee that.  However, it won't be as pronounced as it was in the 1980s, Northeast Philly being no exception.  The Bradley effect will however be stronger in some wards than other and my call is the 64th will surely flip from D 2004 to R 2008 because of it.  I am also calling for 1 or 2 out of the 26th, 55th or 66th to flip as well.  There will even be a Bradley effect in the more Democratic wards such as the 41st, 58th and 65th as well.  I have rethought my process here.  One thing I have noticed in most recent elections here is the Democrats have always been perceived as the "black man's party."  2000 and 2004 were no different.  It has always looked worse on the surface for the Democrats here in the months leading up to the election.  Guess what has happened in the end ultimately?  Yeah, I have bragging rights, but Phil does make some interesting arguments.       

Yes since the primaries I have always felt PA was a crucial state for Obama in the general. All this favorable polling has put my mind to ease but you are correct that PA,OH and other states with high working class dems with racial problems will have a bradley effect. I think nationally it might not be so pronounced but in these states it could account for 2-3 points. But considering PA has been polling about d+4-5 for a while now I am not so worried. I bet Obama will do a little worse than Kerry in parts of philly and western pa but will make it up with the philly burbs and certain parts of the T. It very well could be a similar result to 2004 even with Obama winning the election. 

In some of 'burbs, not, Bucks and possibly Montco could be problems.

If Montco is a problem then Obama is finished but seeing the latest polls I will say it's not too bad. Bucks will be a problem though. That whole area from northeast philly up through levittown and those working class areas around there.

[Sbane]

Bucks will be a problem though. That whole area from northeast philly up through levittown and those working class areas around there.

Not to pick on you specifically but if people are admitting that then I have absolutely no idea how they can argue that this state is still very likely to go for Obama. These are areas that went for Kerry with over 60% of the vote. That's never going to be simply cancelled out by increased black turnout and more support among the white progressives of the SE.

Well I am not saying that Obama will lose those areas per se but rather get a lower margin out of there. I expect him to do better than Kerry in the more high income area of the SE but the question is whether that will be enough to overcome the loss in the more working class areas. The problems do exist for Obama but exactly how much we won't know till november.